Professor

http://www.carolinagrowl.com/Read.aspx?Story=474

CHARLOTTE – We all know Julius Peppers was a superstar in his first five seasons with the Carolina Panthers. And we all saw how his production dipped in 2007.

But in agent Carl Carey’s mind, Peppers’ net worth as an NFL player has not changed with his client’s first disappointing season.

“Julius is the same player he’s always been,” Carey said Monday. “Any speculation contrary to that is not correct in our minds. He had five extremely productive seasons prior to this year and we know he’s still the same player he’s always been. It doesn’t matter externally what anyone else thinks.”

If you read between the lines, what Carey is basically saying, without actually saying it, is this: When Peppers signs a new deal he won’t settle for a contract less than what Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney received last off-season – a seven-year, $72 million deal that included $30 million in guaranteed money.

That puts Panthers general manager Marty Hurney in an interesting situation.

Before the 2007 season, signing Peppers to a long-term deal would have been a no-brainer. In fact, nobody around the league would have batted an eye had Peppers received a contract that equaled or even eclipsed Freeney’s.

But after the season Peppers endured it’s no longer a given that he deserves a Freeney-sized contract, especially if he repeats that performance in the coming years.

Peppers had just three sacks in 2007 after averaging 10.7 over his first five seasons. He had 55 tackles, his lowest total since his rookie year when he played only 12 games. And, even more concerning than the numbers is that Peppers wasn’t as dominant as in past years. In fact, he was quite ordinary, regularly handled one-on-one by average right tackles. On one play late in the season, Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew stood up Peppers despite giving up eight inches and 70 pounds.

So here’s the dilemma.

If Hurney signs off on a Freeney-type contract for Peppers right now he runs the risk of having his named attached to one of the worst contracts in NFL history if Peppers’ performance on the field fails to improve. Can you imagine the uproar among the fan base if Peppers collects on a deal worth more than $10 million per season and comes up with only three sacks in 2008?

On the other hand, the notion of trading or cutting Peppers after one bad season out of six won’t sit particularly well either with most fans, especially if Peppers goes to, say, Baltimore and puts up 15 sacks next year.

Either way, as with any huge contract, there is risk involved. And either way there is the potential for second guessing.

The other option -- and one that is becoming an increasing possibility -- is for Peppers to simply play out his current contract which expires after the 2008 season.

Sure, it’s not ideal.

You don’t want $14 million under the NFL salary cap – about 12 percent of your overall cap – committed to one player, especially if his name isn’t Tom Brady.

But that might be the safest option for the Panthers. At least then they will find out if Peppers’ 2007 season was an anomaly.

Don’t be surprised if the Panthers do just that if they can’t strike a fair long-term deal beforehand.

Hurney typically doesn’t talk about contract negotiations and this case is no exception, he said Monday from the East-West Shrine Bowl. But what he did say is that Peppers is viewed as “an extremely important member of our team. We know how valuable he is.”

Likewise, Carey was also reluctant to talk specifics, except to say, “Marty and I have an open dialogue,” and that he hopes the two sides can come to resolution.

As in any negotiation it will take some compromise before a resolution can be reached.

And what happens if nothing does get resolved?

Carey seemed to dismiss the idea that Peppers might skip training camp if his client doesn’t get a new deal, saying, “We do not do business that way.”

The only downfall of not restructuing Peppers' contract is the cap space he takes up.

You’d think the Panthers would want to get a new deal done before the start of free agency in March because restructuring Peppers’ contract would free up millions they can spend upgrading other positions.

And clearly they need plenty of upgrades.

So how will this play out?

I suspect Peppers will play 2008 under his current contract. But at some point, Peppers will get a truly dynamic long-term deal – either here or somewhere else. My thought is it will be here, but at what cost is tough to know.

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