June 5, 2007
Bears offense should be much better on third down
By Pat Kirwan/NFL.com
The entire offseason talk surrounding the Chicago Bears has been about Lance Briggs seeking a contract extension. It's certainly a newsworthy story but probably not deserving of the attention it has received nearly every day since the Super Bowl. It would be great if he plays the 2007 season for the defending NFC champs, but if he doesn't, there are other things to get interested in discussing.
I prefer to take a look at another very important football issue that Bears coach Lovie Smith and company have to improve in order to return to the Super Bowl and maybe win the game: Chicago's third-down conversion percentage has to get better and it may be headed in that direction. If you're a Bears fan, it might be time to get excited about the potential the Bears are developing on third down, and if your favorite team plays Chicago this season, there may be something to be concerned about.
The addition of converted cornerback Devin Hester gives the Bears offense more explosiveness.
Smith and general manager Jerry Angelo made three important moves this offseason to put a third-down offense on the field that should cause conflicts for defenses and will improve a third-down success percentage that over the past four years has been sub par to say the least, ranking 24th in 2003, 32nd in '04, 31st in '05 and 22nd in '06.
The Bears have fallen short of the NFL average each of the last four years. And when it came to the playoffs, it's even uglier. Teams in general are less successful converting third downs during the playoffs. For example, last year the Colts dropped from a 56 percent success rate in the regular season to 47 percent in the playoffs, converting 30 of 64 third downs. San Diego had a 43.2 percent success rate on third downs all season but fell to 35.7 percent in the postseason. The Ravens succeeded 41.2 percent of the time in the 16-game season but slipped all the way down to 18.2 percent in the postseason. Overall, the NFL rate of success on third downs drops about 5-6 percent from the regular season to the postseason and the Bears hit it right on stride, dropping from a poor 36.8 percent during the season down to 30.4 percent on their playoff run. That may be too much to overcome in the future as their defense loses players like Briggs.
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Bears offense should be much better on third down - Chicago Bears