Bears ending hibernation on third down?
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(June 3, 2007) -- The entire offseason talk surrounding the Chicago Bears has been about Lance Briggs seeking a contract extension. It's certainly a newsworthy story but probably not deserving of the attention it has received nearly every day since the Super Bowl. It would be great if he plays the 2007 season for the defending NFC champs, but if he doesn't, there are other things to get interested in discussing.
I prefer to take a look at another very important football issue that Bears coach Lovie Smith and company have to improve in order to return to the Super Bowl and maybe win the game: Chicago's third-down conversion percentage has to get better and it may be headed in that direction. If you're a Bears fan, it might be time to get excited about the potential the Bears are developing on third down, and if your favorite team plays Chicago this season, there may be something to be concerned about.
Smith and general manager Jerry Angelo made three important moves this offseason to put a third-down offense on the field that should cause conflicts for defenses and will improve a third-down success percentage that over the past four years has been sub par to say the least. Here's a look at the top three teams in the NFL in converting third downs in each of the past four years with a minimum of 80 attempts and where the Bears stacked up. It's amazing the Bears even got to the Super Bowl last year.
Year No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 NFL average Bears
2006 Colts (56%) Cowboys (48.8%) Saints (44.9%) 40% 36.8 % (22nd)
2005 Colts (48.7%) Falcons (42.9%) Bengals (42.9%) 39% 28.8% (31st)
2004 Vikings (52.3%) Packers (47.3%) Chiefs (47.2%) 36.9% 25.1% (32nd)
2003 Seahawks (46.8%) Vikings (46.6%) Saints (46.3%) 36.6% 33.8% (24th)
It's clear from this chart that NFL offenses have consistently improved converting third downs over the past four years but the Bears have fallen short of the NFL average every year. And when it came to the playoffs, it's even uglier. Teams in general are less successful converting third downs during the playoffs. For example, last year the Colts dropped from a 56 percent success rate in the regular season to 47 percent in the playoffs, converting 30 of 64 third downs. San Diego had a 43.2 percent success rate on third downs all season but fell to 35.7 percent in the postseason. The Ravens succeeded 41.2 percent of the time in the 16-game season but slipped all the way down to 18.2 percent in the postseason. Overall, the NFL rate of success on third downs drops about 5-6 percent from the regular season to the postseason and the Bears hit it right on stride, dropping from a poor 36.8 percent during the season down to 30.4 percent on their playoff run. That may be too much to overcome in the future as their defense loses players like Briggs.
But Angelo and Smith recognize they must get better and all of a sudden the Chicago third-down package may have the firepower to cause problems.
Defenses will have to keep an eye on Devin Hester as he moves to offense.
First, the addition of Devin Hester to the offense is going to provide two things they desperately need: 1. A guy who can catch the quick screen on a high-percentage completion and run for a first down. The "smoke screen" series that Steve Smith runs for the Panthers should become a very important part of the Bears' third-down offense. 2. The threat of the reverse when Hester is in the slot, just like the Saints have with Reggie Bush, will hold a pass rusher and minimize underneath coverage on Bernard Berrian or Muhsin Muhammad. For example, if Hester comes from the side opposite Muhammad on the reverse fake, the outside linebacker can't hold off the curl by Muhammad until he knows Hester has the ball or not. By then, it's too late to cover the big wide receiver. Of course, as soon as teams don't honor Hester and drop off quickly, look for Rex Grossman to drop the ball off to Hester.
Next, everyone knows the Bears' deep threat is Berrian, but now Chicago has 6-foot-4 rookie tight end Greg Olsen with his 4.5 40-yard dash speed to open up the middle of the field and prevent the safety on Berrian's side from leaving the hash mark and supporting the deep streak Berrian runs so well. Even Grossman will be able to take advantage of the conflict Olsen and Berrian can create down the field.
The third dimension that could cause problems for opponents is running back Garrett Wolfe, Chicago's third-round pick in April's draft. Wolfe is only 5-foot-7 but his 52 college touchdowns and over 5,000 rushing yards show he could be a very damaging weapon on the draw play. It's going be hard to even see the "little big man" as a fifth weapon on third downs to help move the chains. Wolfe once told me he scored eight touchdowns in high school as a 4-10, 85-pound freshman and he expects to play well in pro football.
I'm not sure how long it's going to take the Bears to fix their third down issues, but I do believe they have enough weapons to cause problems and get up over the league average in third down conversions. Maybe it's time to stop talking about Briggs and focus on what the Bears are building. Now when Smith says, "We got to win on third down," it should happen and that means the playoffs are within reach.
source nfl.com
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Devin Hester to offense!
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