I havent seen any projections yet, but running through the scenarios in my head, here is what I think is most likely:
NCG : Bama vs Notre Dame, no question.
Rose : Stanford vs Wisconsin, no question.
Fiesta gets Kansas State. Orange gets FSU. Those are both givens. Sugar gets first replacement pick for losing Bama to the NCG. They take Florida. Fiesta gets first at large pick. They almost certainly take Oregon. Sugar gets next at large, now things get a bit tricky. 2 loss Oklahoma will be attractive, Louisville still gets a spot, and if NIU or Boise finish top 16, the highest ranked has a spot locked in. So it all comes down to NIU/Boise. If one of them are in, then Lou to the Sugar and the nonBCS to the Orange. If they dont finish top 16, then Okl to the Sugar and Lou to the Orange. If Boise just wouldnt have lost to SDSU at home or if NIU doesnt squander their late lead vs Iowa, then one of those would be locked in.
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