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Old 12-17-2012, 09:18 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Is Experience a Bad Thing?

Based on mentality going into the NCG, do you think Bama or ND has the upper hand? My argument for Bama is that they have been through this before and with this being ND's first NCG in the current era, they could be distracted by the festivities, all the awards, and not have a clear head going into the NCG. Whereas Bama has been successfully through it twice in the last three years, they can just get to Miami and go to work. One trend that I can't ignore is past NCG appearances for teams. FSU won 99 then lost 00. Okl won 00 then lost 03, 04, 08. Miami won 01 then lost 02. Ohio St won 02 then lost 06, 07. USC won 04 then lost 05. Texas won 05 then lost 09. LSU won 03 and 07 then lost 11. Alabama has won 09, 11... I see a trend. It seems like the first time a team makes it they are very hungry. I'm not saying the opponent isn't hungry, I don't know if overconfidence or complacency sets in.

What are your guys thoughts?

In the interest of full disclosure, FSU did lose 98.
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Old 12-17-2012, 10:51 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Experience is never a bad thing, but you still have to execute on game day. When is the last time that a SEC team lost a title game to another conference?
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Old 12-17-2012, 11:15 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Experience is never a bad thing, but you still have to execute on game day. When is the last time that a SEC team lost a title game to another conference?
'95 UF lost to Nebraska.
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Old 12-17-2012, 12:44 PM   #4 (permalink)
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17 years not bad at all.
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:49 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinnick View Post
Based on mentality going into the NCG, do you think Bama or ND has the upper hand? My argument for Bama is that they have been through this before and with this being ND's first NCG in the current era, they could be distracted by the festivities, all the awards, and not have a clear head going into the NCG. Whereas Bama has been successfully through it twice in the last three years, they can just get to Miami and go to work. One trend that I can't ignore is past NCG appearances for teams. FSU won 99 then lost 00. Okl won 00 then lost 03, 04, 08. Miami won 01 then lost 02. Ohio St won 02 then lost 06, 07. USC won 04 then lost 05. Texas won 05 then lost 09. LSU won 03 and 07 then lost 11. Alabama has won 09, 11... I see a trend. It seems like the first time a team makes it they are very hungry. I'm not saying the opponent isn't hungry, I don't know if overconfidence or complacency sets in.

What are your guys thoughts?

In the interest of full disclosure, FSU did lose 98.
Based on mentality I'd give the upper hand to Bama.

Not only does Bama, but Saban knows how to handle these kind of situations. I'd expect nothing less than the best from them.
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Old 12-17-2012, 04:31 PM   #6 (permalink)
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'95 UF lost to Nebraska.
That wasn't just a loss. That game was a beat down. You may never see another one like that in a championship game. Nebraska had 524 rushing yards to Florida's -28. That isn't a typo, Florida had a negative 28 yards rushing.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:13 PM   #7 (permalink)
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That wasn't just a loss. That game was a beat down. You may never see another one like that in a championship game. Nebraska had 524 rushing yards to Florida's -28. That isn't a typo, Florida had a negative 28 yards rushing.
I remember that one well! Good point of interest for the History, in remembering when!...

It will turn as the tide does on all the shores of this football nation! Things will change one day, as parity surely continues to develop and grow!...

Be patient!... Nothing lasts forever!...

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Old 12-18-2012, 03:46 AM   #8 (permalink)
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That wasn't just a loss. That game was a beat down. You may never see another one like that in a championship game. Nebraska had 524 rushing yards to Florida's -28. That isn't a typo, Florida had a negative 28 yards rushing.
See FSU-UF '96, Miami-Nebraska '01, USC-OU '04, and UF-OSU '06.
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:13 AM   #9 (permalink)
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See FSU-UF '96, Miami-Nebraska '01, USC-OU '04, and UF-OSU '06.
I have said that I believe(IMO), that I see this NCG as a legitimate 50/50 chance for either team and this history is much of a more current factoring tribute to CFB and this NCG!...

Look at these facts...

Recent BCS History shows that since its implementation, in the last 14 BCS NCGs, 7 have been won by the underdog!...

Bama is only 7 point favorites at this point...

Regardless, I like NDs chances!... Every kind of factual team situation has probably existed with these last 14 years of NCGs... Doesn't appear to have affected the underdog much here with these stats!...

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Old 12-19-2012, 12:53 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Stats can always be manipulated and are often misleading, if not put in the proper context. For example Bama is the favorite according to Las Vegas and betting odds, but Notre Dame is the # 1 ranked team in the BCS. So from the BCS perspective, #2 Bama is actually the underdog.

In the last ten years of the BCS, #2 has beaten #1 seven times. So the higher ranked team is only 3-7 in the last 10 BCS Championship games. And the SEC has not lost to another conference in the BCS title game going a perfect 8-0.

Of course stats won't win the title, but there are plenty of stats and trends in Bama's favor as well.
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