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O · 08-17-2006, 10:01 AM

This was researched and written by Patrick Fuller of Edmund, OK, and sent in to Chris Havel for the Green Bay Press-Gazette:

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In reference to Dr. Z's comments regarding Brett Favre, George Blanda, interceptions, and the Hall of Fame, I'd like to offer a statistical analysis that will both prove a portion of Z's assessments accurate, and at the same time, give you a different perspective.

As noted, George Blanda threw 277 interceptions over his career, which is not only the NFL record, it's also the record for Hall of Fame QB's as well. Favre is on pace to break it if he plays beyond this season. Favre averages - for his career - 1.13 interceptions per game, meaning he'd need a few games in the 2007 season to break Blanda's record. Where does Favre rank on the list of HOF QB's with regard to interceptions thrown?
Blanda is the clubhouse leader at 277
Fran Tarkenton is in second with 266
Favre - 255
Johnny Unitas - 253 (That's right - Johnny U. threw 253 for his career)
Dan Marino - 252
Bobby Layne - 243
Dan Fouts - 242

But is that an accurate stat? After all, George Blanda played in a staggering 342 games over his NFL career, which means he is amongst the all-time leaders in fewest interceptions thrown per game amongst the current HOF QB's at .81 per game. Steve Young is the leader (.63 per game), Bart Starr (.70), Joe Montana (.72), Blanda (.81), Roger Staubach (.83), Troy Aikman (.85), Len Dawson (.87), and John Elway (.97) round out those below 1 interception per game.

What I believe is a more accurate depiction of a QB's interception rate, however, is the number of attempts per interception. Among current HOF QB's, or those projected to enter the Hall (Favre, Brady, Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, etc.), Steve Young, once again, is the leader at 38.78 attempts per interception, tied with his former teammate, Joe Montana. Tom Brady is second all-time with 38.61 attempts per pick. Third on the list? Brett Favre, with 33.83 attempts per pick, followed by Troy Aikman (33.44), Peyton Manning (33.33), Dan Marino (33.17), Drew Bledsoe (33.07), and John Elway (32.07). To give you a sense of drop-off, here are the bottom few from that list: Bob Waterfield (12.63 attempts per interception); Blanda (14.47), Layne (15.23), Norm Van Brocklin (16.26), Otto Graham (16.65), and a couple of Broadway legends, Joe Namath (17.10) and Y.A. Tittle (17.27).

Another interesting slant is to look at the difference between touchdown passes per game and interceptions per game. The leader? Peyton Manning (1.91 TD's per game - 1.02 INT's per game = .89). Manning was followed by Steve Young (.74), Tom Brady (.71), Montana & Marino (.70), Favre (.63) and Jim Kelly (.39). Of the 28 current or future HOF QB's studied for this, a whopping 29% (8 of 28 ) had more interceptions than touchdowns.

So, what are the conclusions? Joe Montana, rightfully so, is one of the best to ever play the position; Steve Young's numbers would suggest that he is right behind Montana. It also suggests that Peyton Manning will probably own the all-time TD record when he retires.

If Tom Brady's career ended today, is he a HOF'er? Debatable. His numbers are good now, but without having to have been part of a building process - much less a rebuilding process yet. History (and the structure of the NFL today) suggest that if he plays his entire career in New England, with free agency and continual lower round picks, the depth and talent New England has enjoyed will soon go the way of San Francisco, Dallas and Green Bay, which would suggest that Brady's numbers will go down. As for Favre, you say you'll still vote for him for the Hall of Fame, but maybe not on the first ballot. You curse the interceptions (as all Packer fans do, by the way. Watch a game with a few of them some time), but yet, Favre is amongst the best of the best in terms of fewest picks thrown per attempts. He has started EVERY game since he became the starter in 1992. Furthermore, he has only had 1 losing season in 14 years as a starter, and that was last season. He has a Super Bowl win, and he'll probably own the all time TD pass record when he retires. The NFL's ONLY 3 time MVP, Favre was also one vote short of a 4th MVP in 2002 (7 years after winning his first.) I'm sorry, but if Favre isn't a first ballot Hall of Famer, who is?[/b]

**Gobears81** · 08-17-2006, 10:07 AM

Breaking down Favre physically

O · 08-17-2006, 10:12 AM

Nice pictures.

21-7 vs. the Bears.

Ok back on topic.

**Duds47** · 08-17-2006, 07:57 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(O @ Aug 17th ) [snapback]1667506[/snapback]</div>

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Nice pictures.

21-7 vs. the Bears.

Ok back on topic.
[/b]

I guess history only goes back as far as when it stops supporting your misleading statistic, huh?

dbo78912 · 08-17-2006, 08:05 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(O @ Aug 17th ) [snapback]1667498[/snapback]</div>

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As noted, George Blanda threw 277 interceptions over his career, which is not only the NFL record, it's also the record for Hall of Fame QB's as well.
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OMFG NO FKING WAY

**imported_nowayguy** · 08-17-2006, 08:10 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(O @ Aug 17th ) [snapback]1667498[/snapback]</div>

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This was researched and written by Patrick Fuller of Edmund, OK, and sent in to Chris Havel for the Green Bay Press-Gazette:
[/b]

these stats tell me favre is god

tregrimmd · 08-17-2006, 08:24 PM

Only a ******* would say he isn't a first ballot HOFer. The 3 MVPs alone guarantee that. Add in if he plays atleast this season and next season he'll all but own the entire QB record book, its just foolish to think he wouldn't be in first ballot.

Is this the same guy that said Faulk isn't a HOFer?

O · 08-17-2006, 08:57 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Duds47 @ Aug 17th ) [snapback]1668186[/snapback]</div>

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I guess history only goes back as far as when it stops supporting your misleading statistic, huh?
[/b]

That is Favre's record against the Bears. How is it misleading? I posted an article about Favre, a Bears fan decided to take it as an opportunity to get a jab in like they always ****ing do, and I posted his record against the Bears.

Misleading.

08-17-2006, 09:16 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(O @ Aug 17th ) [snapback]1668275[/snapback]</div>

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That is Favre's record against the Bears. How is it misleading? I posted an article about Favre, a Bears fan decided to take it as an opportunity to get a jab in like they always ****ing do, and I posted his record against the Bears.

Misleading.

[/b]

Just ignore the mole. He will go away....hopefully