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FBF Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 28,057
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By War Room scouts
Sporting News
In the wake of last week's much-hyped workouts, many reports had the 49ers leaning toward California quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the first overall pick. Now it appears the Niners are creating a smoke screen and that Utah quarterback Alex Smith is their guy.
The reports suggest the Niners are trying to re-create Bill Walsh's ways of doing business. Walsh would constantly remind his staff members it was their job to gather information and not to give anything away. No one was instructed to disseminate misinformation, but Niners personnel understood their orders.
The Niners are sending mixed messages about their intentions for the No. 1 pick, pessimistically holding out hope that a trade partner emerges.
However, their real motive is to create leverage for negotiations with their draft candidates. If a clear-cut candidate emerges, their leverage disappears.
Expect the Niners to praise more than one potential top pick leading up to April 23. NFL rules permit the team picking first to begin negotiations, and reach an agreement, with players before the draft. The anointed player will be required to sign before he is selected.
For 49ers officials, no news is good news -- and confusion is better. So we are whispering what we know: Smith is the guy based on potential. Don't tell anyone we told you.
2005's ROETHLISBERGER?
Draft order and team needs play key roles in player selection every year. Take, for example, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Eli Manning was the first overall pick and Philip Rivers went fourth, but teams picking in the next six spots didn't need a quarterback. They had a starter in place or had higher-priority needs.
As a result, Roethlisberger slid. So for the price of patience and a box of antacid tablets, the Steelers got the player they coveted with the 11th overall pick. Roethlisberger paid off handsomely.
History probably will repeat itself. Based on draft order and team needs, Florida tackle Alex Barron will be the latest victim of circumstance. Barron is the top tackle on every team's draft board. He is a top-five player and, on our Super 99 and other boards, the best player available.
But like Roethlisberger, Barron is headed for draft-day disappointment. In fact, we see him sliding out of the top 10 -- a huge fall for a player with elite talent.
So, whose clammy hands are on the antacid box now? The Texans, who will preach patience and pray Barron falls to them at 13th overall.
RUNNING NOWHERE FAST
Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson will be the first running backs taken, and all will go within the first 10 picks. Don't be surprised to see running back interest vanish after that. We project one other back will be drafted before the third round. This, despite five players grading out as second-round picks.
Minnesota's Marion Barber III should be off the board before the 50th pick, an appropriate place for his grade. Despite having higher value, California's J.J. Arrington, Ciatrick Fason of Florida and West Virginia's Kay-Jay Harris will be pushed into Round 3.
Here's why: Running backs are not a priority in this draft. There is a glut in the market, with very good talent available in trade or free agency. Those veterans include Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry, all of whom are tradable; and free agents Anthony Thomas, Antowain Smith and Amos Zereoue.
Someone picking early on Day 2 will find a great running back on the board, because a prospect will fall out of the first three rounds.
NOTES AND OBSERVATIONS
Count Troy State's Demarcus Ware among players whose value is rising fast. In addition to outstanding workouts at the Combine and on campus, Ware has outstanding character, something teams crave. Plus, he has size, running ability and all the intangibles, especially great football instincts. As a bonus, Ware's timing couldn't be better. At least six teams are converting to a 3-4 scheme and need a standup outside linebacker to fill their personnel demands. That would be Ware. . . .
Speaking of instincts, this is the time when coaches decide whether players who look good in workouts can actually play. Case in point: Georgia strong safety Thomas Davis had a first-round grade based on his height, weight and speed. But when coaches began to evaluate his playing ability, Davis saw his grade plunge. . . .
On the other hand, Oklahoma safety Brodney Pool is winning over coaches who are studying his game film. Pool's grade is climbing, and he could be chosen late in the first round. . . .
By his decision alone, San Diego State linebacker Kirk Morrison confirmed what scouts knew. How? At his pro day workout Morrison chose to run in spiked track shoes, something scouts insist players should not use. That raised a red flag, and observers immediately tacked one-tenth of a second onto his 40 time. So while Morrison's 4.75-second dash appears good, scouts downgraded him because of his spikes and for running on a fast rubber track. Morrison is a solid prospect who plays fast because of outstanding instincts. He will be a good pro, and even with a black mark for speed he probably will be a Day 1 pick.
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Draft Dish:Secret's out about Niners' smoke screen
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