dolphins

I was able to project a draft order for the 2007 NFL college draft by use of a points system. This points system uses the team's strength of schedule for the upcoming 2006 season and each team's rankings over the past five years, expect Houston where they only have been in the league for 4 seasons. Each year's wins were weighted and averaged, giving a value of five to the past season (2005), four to the 2004 season, and so on down the line until the 2001 season. Then that value was multiplied by the strength of schedule for each team for the 2006 season. For an example I will use Pittsburgh, over the last five seasons they have posted 11, 15, 6, 10, and 13 wins and have strength of schedule of 0.531 for the 2006 season; thus ((11*5+15*4+6*3+10*2+13)/15)*0.531=5.876 points.

Round 1
1. Detroit (2.270)
2. Houston (2.279)
3. San Francisco (2.576)
4. Arizona (2.600)
5. Oakland (2.890)
6. Cleveland (2.935)
7. Buffalo (3.116)
8. N.Y. Jets (3.286)
9. New Orleans (3.450)
10. Chicago (3.471)
11. Minnesota (3.686)
12. Tennessee (3.689)
13. Miami (3.752)
14. Green Bay (3.772)
15. Washington (3.818)
16. Dallas (3.830)
17. San Diego (4.099)
18. Baltimore (4.184)
19. Jacksonville (4.197)
20. Atlanta (4.199)
21. St. Louis (4.267)
22. N.Y. Giants (4.272)
23. Cincinnati (4.380)
24. Carolina (4.402)
25. Tampa Bay (4.635)
26. Seattle (4.692)
27. Kansas City (4.884)
28. Philadelphia (5.304)
29. Denver (5.538)
30. New England (5.581)
31. Indianapolis (5.808)
32. Pittsburgh (5.876)

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this is what I would have gotten for the 2005 season

1 Houston 2.251
2 Detroit 2.381
3 Arizona 2.397
4 Chicago 2.976
5 Washington 3.021
6 San Francisco 3.188
7 Cleveland 3.304
8 Cincinnati 3.403
9 Dallas 3.440
10 Atlanta 3.472
11 N.Y. Giants 3.509
12 San Diego 3.530
13 Jacksonville 3.584
14 Buffalo 3.652
15 Minnesota 3.680
16 Carolina 3.691
17 Tampa Bay 3.721
18 New Orleans 3.813
19 Seattle 3.857
20 Oakland 4.028
21 Miami 4.440
22 N.Y. Jets 4.533
23 Tennessee 4.540
24 Denver 4.646
25 Kansas City 4.775
26 St. Louis 4.782
27 Green Bay 4.844
28 Baltimore 5.069
29 Pittsburgh 5.292
30 Indianapolis 5.333
31 Philadelphia 5.496
32 New England 5.904

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TitanFan

While I like the idea of using a formula for an early ranking to base mocks around I think 5 years is too large a sample with so many teams' fortunes having changed since then

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dolphins

that's why I weighted each year

2005 - 5
2004 - 4
2003 - 3
2002 - 2
2001 - 1

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DHNF

Pretty interesting... Couple of things that stood out to me though from what your projections would have been for last year...

8 Cincinnati 3.403
26 St. Louis 4.782
27 Green Bay 4.844
28 Baltimore 5.069
31 Philadelphia 5.496




It's an interesting concept but there are WAY too many variables that are impossible to account for that will affect how well every team will do each year.

Still cool idea though.

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dolphins

thanks, if you got any other ways I can make it better, just let me know

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imported_PeanutTillman

The Bears will pick higher

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Bye NFL-Fans