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Old 04-25-2007, 08:03 AM   #1 (permalink)
SDOGO
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Throughout draft meetings conducted the past two weeks, teams have evaluated not only players' performances in games, at the Combine and at pro days, but also the players' injury histories. Injury discussions have hurt some players' draft stocks, while other players have barely been affected. Below are some players whose injury histories have engendered particularly lively discussions:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma. Anyone who follows the draft knows that Peterson missed the final portion of the past regular season after breaking his collarbone diving into the end zone against Iowa State. But more significant is the fact that he missed at least one game during each of his three seasons at Oklahoma because of injury.

While every player gets hurt at some point, running backs with a history of missing games usually struggle to be durable NFL backs. When you add in Peterson's upright running style, which leads to him taking a lot of hard hits, there is undoubtedly a real concern about his ability to be a long-term feature back in the NFL. Many have said Peterson can correct his upright running style easily, and that is possible, but in reality such a change is easier said than done.

Michael Bush, RB, Louisville. Bush received some much-needed help this week when renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. James R. Andrews wrote a letter confirming that Bush is 99 percent recovered from the broken leg he suffered in Louisville's 2006 season opener. This letter was included in a packet sent to all NFL teams, a packet which also included a recent video of Bush going through a full workout at Louisville.

Although it is good that teams can see Bush working out, don't expect the video to help Bush too much, because teams are always leery of workouts conducted without their own representatives around to validate the proceedings.

Bush was generally regarded as a second-round prospect entering his senior season, and he definitely slid down draft boards when he broke his leg. He fell further when he was not ready to work out at Louisville's pro day because of a second surgery to place a new rod into his leg. That made him a likely fourth-round pick. But the recent letter and video gives Bush a chance to be picked in the third round, though the odds of someone using a first-day draft pick still are only 50/50.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State. Many NFL teams are concerned that Ginn has not fully recovered from a sprained foot -- as evidenced by his limited workout on April 12. However, Ginn impressed many teams by running a 4.39/4.40 when he was not at 100 percent health and was not running very smoothly. Ginn's thin frame and injury are definitely concerns for NFL teams, but in Ginn's case, the sprained foot will not have much of an impact on his draft status because teams know that he timed so fast despite still being hurt.

Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE, Hawaii. Alama-Francis shined during his senior season and made a name for himself as the best of the lesser-known defensive ends in the country. However, his meteoric rise up draft boards was curtailed when he tore a pectoral muscle at the Hula Bowl and could not work out at the Combine.

However, Alama-Francis was nearly 100 percent at his pro day and looked athletic and explosive, which helped him hold ground on most draft boards. While his injury probably will keep him from being drafted at the spot projected at the end of the season, Alama-Francis still is a likely second-round pick.

Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn State. Posluszny was not injured during his senior season, but the injury he suffered in Penn State's Orange Bowl game his junior year (torn PCL) definitely affected him as a senior. As a result, teams are struggling to come to a consensus on his draft stock. Most people who evaluated Posluszny from just his senior-year film rate him a second-round prospect, but nearly everyone who evaluated his junior season felt he was a first-round player.

Now teams are struggling to figure out if Posluszny will get back to the level he played at as a junior, or if what he did as a senior is a more accurate indicator of his potential. Posluszny did help himself by running faster at his pro day than he did at the Combine, because that suggests to teams he is improving the farther away he gets from the injury.

In the end, Posluszny will probably not be drafted in the top half of the first round, as he would have been before the injury. He most likely will be chosen in the last 15 picks of the first round or in the top 10 of the second round.

Tarell Brown, CB, Texas. As a senior, Brown struggled to play at the high level of his junior season, and he did not receive much publicity for battling through a highly debilitating turf toe injury. The injury was severe enough for him to not practice at all some weeks during the season, but he was still able to play thru the pain and did a solid job.

However, teams have gone back and looked at film from his play as a junior, especially the championship game against USC where he really played well. Just based on his on-field play as a junior and postseason workouts, Brown seemed to have fought his way back into the third round. But his recent misstep with marijuana will cause him to be a late second-day draft pick.

DeAndre Jackson, CB, Iowa State. Jackson has been hurt more than just about every prospect. In the same game that Peterson broke his collarbone, Jackson blew out his ACL and had to have surgery to repair the damage. Prior to his injury, Jackson was widely viewed as a solid third-round prospect, but since barely five months have passed since his surgery, Jackson has not been able to work out fully. He gamely tried to go thru a workout at Iowa State and really struggled with many of the drills and the 40. Jackson is likely to slip to the late part of the second day, and he possibly could end up going undrafted.

Matt Spaeth, TE, Minnesota. Spaeth showed NFL teams a lot of toughness by battling through a painful shoulder injury his senior season. But after postseason surgery, he was just regaining his ability to work out when he held his pro day. Although Spaeth did decently, he was not back to the level he had been at before the injury.

Luckily for Spaeth, he was not regarded as a speedy, receiving tight end. So not being great in his workout will not hurt him, and it probably showed the toughness that teams love. He is one of the few prospects who will probably be drafted almost exactly where he would have been had he not been injured at all.

LAST COURSE

Two players helped themselves with their pro day workouts on March 30. Both players worked out at Northwestern, but only one played there. Cornerback Marquice Cole from Northwestern not only ran very well (low 4.3s on both his 40 times on AstroTurf), but he also had a strong overall workout, which could make him a late draft pick rather than an undrafted free agent.

Western Illinois receiver Marco Thomas was allowed to work out in Evanston. He was a very productive small-school receiver, but many (including us at the War Room) questioned his speed. He helped himself by running in the high 4.3s on Northwestern's AstroTurf. It now appears Thomas has the necessary speed to play in the NFL, and he will most likely be drafted during the second day.
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