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**Professor** · 03-16-2008, 12:13 AM

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2....cfm?writer=26

MIA Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Three drafts, three different #1s. Will I switch again next month? I don't think so, but don't put it past me. Long is the best fit for the Dolphins here, because he can fit at end, at tackle, or maybe even linebacker, according to some. Wherever he's put on the field, you can count on him to produce. And frankly, the Dolphins need some production on defense.

STL Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
The Rams still could go for Jake Long, or for Sedrick Ellis, who would allow Adam Carriker to move back to defensive end full-time, but if Chris Long isn't on the board, then the Rams go with Gholston, who's proving himself to be an athletic freak of nature. He does have that 'hit or miss' look to him, but I'm leaning more towards him being a hit.

ATL Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Yes, they need some help on defense, and could use Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey. They also need an O-lineman, and could go for Jake Long. But, I've kept Ryan here for the first couple of mocks, and I'll keep him here for now, since they can get some high-quality help in other areas with their two second-rounders.

OAK Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Ellis didn't really have the earth-shattering combine that some may have been expecting after the Senior Bowl, but it's not the end of the world. Oakland just gave Tommy Kelly a $50 million deal, and whether or not he's deserving of it is debatable, but give Ellis a few years, and he'll be deserving of one, without a doubt.

KC Jake Long, OT, Michigan
With the way things could shake out with the first few picks, Long could fall to #5. There's a chance that Kansas City could go for Ryan Clady of Boise St. either way, but Long is still the top o-lineman on the board for now, and with that being the Chiefs' biggest need, then you take the best guy available.

NYJ Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
There are a lot of areas that the Jets need to address, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they try to trade up with one of the teams in the top five, like Atlanta, so that they can get Vernon Gholston if he doesn't go in the top 2. But, if Gholston's gone, then take the best player on the board in McFadden.

NE Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
With Asante Samuel gone to the Eagles, and the Pats not having another pick in the first round (whose fault is that?), it's best for them to take a corner here, and wait for the bottom of the second to get a linebacker. There are quite a few worthy corners here, but McKelvin is the man.

BAL Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Ravens need a QB, because Steve McNair's too banged up, Kyle Boller's not the answer, and Troy Smith likely isn't either. Brohm is pretty set as the #2 guy right now, and could actually make a push to be taken higher.

CIN Keith Rivers, LB, USC
I know, if Glenn Dorsey's here, why not take him? There's a chance that they can pick up someone like Pat Sims, Dre Moore, Red Bryant, or Athyba Rubin in round 2 or 3, but they've got holes all over the defense. Rivers could step in and start at linebacker immediately, and be the first step towards defensive respectability for the Bengals.

NO Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
The Saints had the #30 pass defense in the league this season, so it might be a bit of an understatement that they need help in the secondary, and that's where a shutdown corner like Jenkins comes in. He's got the cover skills to be a special one.

BUF Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
After picking up linebacker Kawika Mitchell, the Bills can use their first-round pick on a top-notch receiver. They've got speed with Lee Evans, so they go with size and athleticism in Kelly.

DEN Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
There's a chance, albeit a small one, that Dorsey could drop out of the top 10. If he does, the Broncos would be foolish not to draft him, because if he's healthy, he could be a star for them at tackle.

CAR Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
With Mike Rucker headed towards retirement and Julius Peppers having a subpar year, the Panthers managed only 23 sacks in 2007. Harvey's put on 20 pounds, and with his size, agility, and strength, could make an immediate impact in Carolina. He's still a pretty raw talent, which is a scary thought.

CHI Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
Yes, the Bears do need to wrap up their signal-caller for the future, but they also need an offensive lineman to add some depth and youth, and with Clady dropping past Kansas City and Denver, he's a perfect fit for Chicago.

DET Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the league, which tripped up their hopes of fulfilling Jon Kitna's audacious prediction of 10 wins. They could really use some help in the secondary, and with Leodis McKelvin and Mike Jenkins off the board, the Lions get a quality shutdown corner in Talib, who could also help them out in the return game, and even catch a few passes from Jon Kitna.

ARI Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
Running back or corner? There'll be a lot of talent still on the board at both come the second round, but I'll stick with Cason to be the pick here. It's hard to pass on him, not only because he's an in-stater, but also because he fills the biggest position of need.

MIN Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
Minnesota had a solid defensive line in 2007, but it wasn't spectacular, as no lineman recorded more than five sacks. Groves solidfied his status as a first-rounder at the combine, and should sneak into the top 20.

HOU Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Stewart is both thunder and lightning - he's got the size and strength of a bruising power back, but he's got the game-breaking speed to run away from you after he runs through you. He's a triple threat, as a runner, receiver, and returner, so he'll give the Texans that big-play back that Houston fans (used to) wish they could have had in Reggie Bush.

PHI Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Whoever is taking the snaps for the Eagles next year, may it be Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, or A.J. Feeley, is going to need to be upright, and not getting knocked on his behind 12 times. Williams can play either left or right tackle.

TB DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal
Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard are no spring chickens, and after having a huge rookie season in 2004, Michael Clayton's potential has been curtailed by injuries over the last three years. The addition of Jackson would not only add a game-breaker to thr receiving corps, but Buccaneer fans also likely won't have to wait another 31 years to see a kickoff return for a touchdown.

WAS Philip Merling, DE, Clemson
Andre Carter had a huge year with 10.5 sacks, but he was the brightest spot in the Redskins' defensive line. Merling has been rated as high as a top-10 pick by NFL Draft Countdown, so if he is here at #21, the 'Skins would be insane to let him fall past them.

DAL Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
Rodgers-Cromartie has moved himself into definite first-round status after the combine, and could jump into the top 15. He's tall, fast, he can cover, and he answered any concerns about tackling ability at the Senior Bowl. Not only that, he could play either corner or safety, and give Dallas an option at kick returner. What's not to like?

PIT Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger had a career season in 2007, and Willie Parker was the NFL's leading rusher when he went out for the season in Week 15, but their injury-riddled offensive line was a liability, to say the least, giving up 47 sacks on the season. Otah ran a 5.5 at the combine, but he wasn't 100%, so his stock shouldn't drop at all.

TEN Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
It would be an understatement to say that the Titans could use some upgrades at receiver, and they do it by reuniting Vince Young with one of his favorite targets from his collegiate days, who knows how to go up and get it, no matter where it's thrown. His stock had fallen thanks to his injured wrist, but he's on the move back up now.

SEA James Hardy, WR, Indiana
The Seahawks picked up free agent running backs Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett, so it looks like they won't be in the market for a running back. So, they go with another need and pick up a big-time receiver in Hardy. Matt Hasselbeck had a career year in 2007, so imagine what he could do with the addition of this athletic playmaker to his stable of targets.

JAX Kentwan Balmer, DT/DE, North Carolina
After the loss of Marcus Stroud, the Jaguars need a new defensive tackle, and after Ellis and Dorsey, Balmer is the best option. He didn't run that fast at the combine, but neither did a lot of other top prospects.

SD Branden Albert, G, Virginia
Because the Chargers are light in the pockets when it comes to picks in the draft, they could trade this one to get more. But, if they keep it, who do they take? Albert impressed enough at the combine to push himserlf into first-round consideration, and the fact that he could play guard or tackle should be very appealing to the Chargers' brass.

DAL Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
I've had the Cowboys taking Felix Jones for quite a while, but I thought I'd switch it up and still address their need for a speed back with the fastest back in the draft, East Carolina speedster Johnson, who ran a blistering 4.24 40 at the combine. Johnson can run, catch, and return kicks, and he's very sure-handed as well.

SF Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St.
Alex Smith needs targets, among other things, to save his starting job. Thomas ran one of the fastest 40 times at the combine, and off the heels of a monster junior year, is one of the hot names on the board.

GB Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
Charles Woodson and Al Harris are both in their 30s, and Porter, who ran a 4.29 40 at Indiana's Pro Day, has jumped into contention for a first-round spot. Porter's a little small, but he's got excellent cover skills, he's fast, and he's an interception machine. He could also return punts.

NE Forfeited

NYG Dan Connor, LB, Penn St.
There aren't a lot of teams with the need to draft a linebacker in the first round, so with that in mind, Connor drops to the bottom of the first. But, that's a steal for the Super Bowl champs, whose defense gets even better with the addition of the latest stud linebacker to come out of Happy Valley.

**BeastJacobs** · 03-16-2008, 07:45 AM

Nope, Linebacker isn't our biggest need. I didn't see anyone taking Brandon Flowers from Virginia in the first round which is very surprising. So we'd definitely take him. He's a hard hitting corner who has excellent coverage and reading the play skills.

Tequila Sunrise · 03-16-2008, 08:42 AM

I say the Dolphins and Pats trade down.

When will the 2008 compensatory picks be assigned? Are they based on this year's free agency or last?

**RoyWilliams** · 03-16-2008, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tequila Sunrise

I say the Dolphins and Pats trade down.

When will the 2008 compensatory picks be assigned? Are they based on this year's free agency or last?

Heres an explanation from AdamJT13. All credit goes to him on finding these things out.

Quote:

For the seventh consecutive year and eighth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past six projections, I’ve averaged 23.7 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.2 more. Unless the NFL has secretly changed its formula, this year’s projections have a chance to break my record of 26 correct and four off by one round (set in 2003 and tied in 2006). And I might even be able to match the exact order of the comp picks that I get correct or within one round, if my new formula works. I’ll explain more on that later.

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded seems to be the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract values used in the equation seemingly do not include things such as workout bonuses and incentives. (Also, keep in mind that the contract figures reported in the media often are incorrect.) And the playing time used in the equation seemingly is the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps played.

A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this – for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value would bring a third-round comp pick and another qualifying player whose value would bring a sixth-round comp pick but signs a qualifying player whose value would be in the range for a third-round pick. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value was equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 12 of these “net value” type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all 12 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value. This year, I’m projecting that Atlanta will receive a net-value comp after losing three qualifying players (Patrick Kerney, Ashley Lelie and Justin Griffith) and signing three qualifying players (Ovie Mughelli, Lewis Sanders and Marcus Wilkins). The combined values of the players Atlanta lost was more than twice as much as the combined values of the players it signed.

For the first time, I’ve used a mathematical formula to weight the three factors that determine a player’s value in the comp equation (his contract, his playing time and his postseason awards). Using this formula, I was able to reconstruct the exact order of the comp picks that had been awarded in 2006 and 2007. I don’t know if I have the factors weighted correctly, but I’m sure it’s more accurate than simply taking educated guesses to determine player’s values, as I always had done in the past. If I can get the order of the picks correct for whichever picks I have in the correct round or off by one, then that would suggest that I have the weights about right.

As always, please note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula. I don’t pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value must be above a specific minimum amount (or, possibly, have incentives in his contract that would put him above the minimum); and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

The most difficult part about projecting the comp picks is determining all of the cutoff points – the minimum value needed to qualify and the value ranges for the comp picks in each round of the draft. The comp picks awarded in previous years suggest that the cutoff points increase each year by a small percentage – approximately the same percentage by which the leaguewide salary cap increases. From 2006 to 2007, the cap went up 6.99 percent, so I used a 7 percent increase when estimating the cutoff points for this year’s comp picks.

Last year, the lowest-paid players who are known to have qualified for the NFL’s comp equation signed for $750,000 per season and saw significant playing time. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Kevin McCadam, who signed for $765,000 but played only on special teams. Several players who signed for $750,000 but did not see significant playing time also did not qualify. This year, I have three players whom I consider “on the bubble” for qualifying – Chris Liewinski, Mike Doss and Marcus Wilkins. For various reasons, I’m projecting that all three players will qualify. Using my weighting formula, despite signing the smallest contract ($740,000 per year) of the three bubble players, Liewinski has the highest value of the three because he had by far the most playing time of the three. His value using my mathematical formula is more than 7 percent higher than the values of the lowest-valued players known to have qualified last year, which is why I’m projecting that Liewinski will qualify this year. Doss signed for $900,000 per season but saw very little playing time except on special teams. If he does not qualify, which is possible, he’d be by far the highest-paid player ever not to qualify. Wilkins signed for less than Doss (Wilkins signed for $816,667 per year) and played even less than Doss, but his three-year contract included escalator clauses that could raise his base salaries in the final two years of the deal. Last year, a player with a similar contract and playing time (Jamie Winborn) qualified for the equation despite having a lower value in the formula than a player who did not qualify. I’m guessing it was because of his escalator clause, which is why I’m projecting that Wilkins will qualify, too. But I could be wrong on both counts.

There are seven players this year who were close to being on the bubble but seem to be above it – Kawika Mitchell, Montrae Holland, Jeff Zgonina, Todd Johnson, Andre Davis, Kenny Wright and Vinny Ciurciu (listed from highest value to lowest value). I’m fairly confident that all of them will qualify, although Ciurciu might not. There are four players who I’m pretty sure fell just below the bubble (again, listed from highest value to lowest value) – Cameron Worrell, Paul Smith, David Macklin and Jason Whittle. Their values using the formula were lower than the values of several players who did not qualify last year, so unless I made a mistake somewhere, none of them should qualify this year. Worrell and Smith would be the most likely to qualify, if any of them do.

Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.05 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.45 million to $5.3 million, the fifth-round comp players had signed for $3.5 million to $4.8 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $1.96 million to $2.6 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for $1.417 million or less per season. Note that the upper range for seventh-rounders could misleading because none of last year’s comp picks were for players who signed for between $1.417 million and $1.96 million. And there was an overlap for the fourth- and fifth-round values because of differences in playing time. After reconstructing the NFL’s comp equation for 2007 using my new formula, I was able to narrow down some of last year’s cutoff points by using players who qualified for the equation but did not have a comp pick awarded for them. The value range (based solely on contract size) for fifth-rounders became $3.2 million (down from $3.5 million) to $4.8 million, for sixth-rounders became $1.96 million to $3.2 million (up from $2.6 million) and for seventh-rounders became $2.025 million or less (up from $1.417 million or less). Again, there is an overlap because of differences in playing time. You’ll notice this year’s value ranges in the list a few paragraphs below this one.

As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round, until the maximum of 32 has been reached. If there are 28 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first four picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, I’m projecting that 31 true comps will be awarded, including Atlanta’s comp pick for a net-value loss, which I mentioned earlier. Therefore, I’m projecting that Miami will receive a non-compensatory pick to fill out the maximum number of picks. If the NFL’s equation results in more than one non-compensatory pick being added, the next four teams in line to receive one would be St. Louis, the New York Jets, Atlanta and Oakland.

Here are the projected picks for 2008, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and other notes (I’ve also noted the six picks that fall near a cutoff point and could end up in a different round) –

THIRD ROUND
Washington (Derrick Dockery, $7 million per season, 16 GP/16 GS)
Cincinnati (Eric Steinbach, $6.971 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Adalius Thomas, $6.9 million, 16/15)

FOURTH ROUND
Buffalo (Mike Gandy, $4.667 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Tony Pashos, $4.7 million, 15/15)
Philadelphia (Donte Stallworth, $5.083 million, 16/9)
Green Bay (Ahman Green, $5.6 million, 6/5)
Tennessee (Drew Bennett, $5 million, 14/1) – possibly a fifth- round pick
San Diego (Donnie Edwards, $4.5 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth- round pick

FIFTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Jeff Garcia, $4 million, 13/13, Pro Bowl)
N.Y. Giants (Visanthe Shiancoe, $3.6 million, 16/15) – possibly a sixth- round pick

SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (Nick Harper, $3.133 million, 14/14)
Indianapolis (Dominic Rhodes, $3.75 million, 10/2)
Philadelphia (Roderick Hood $3 million, 16/16)
Miami (Damion McIntosh, $2.95 million, 15/15)
Indianapolis (Cato June, $3 million, 16/14)
Baltimore (Ovie Mughelli, $3 million, 16/7)
Cincinnati (Kevin Kaesviharn, $2.4 million, 16/3) – possibly a seventh- round pick
Cincinnati (Kelley Washington, $2.5 million, 14/0) – possibly a seventh- round pick

SEVENTH ROUND
Baltimore (Aubrayo Franklin, $2 million, 14/13) – possibly a sixth- round pick
Carolina (Chris Draft, $1.358 million, 16/6)
Washington (Warrick Holdman, $1.375 million, 0/0, on IR all season)
Chicago (Justin Gage, $1 million, 16/8)
Cincinnati (Anthony Wright, $1.055 million, 4/0)
Chicago (Todd Johnson, $975,000, 16/1)
Buffalo (Andre Davis, $850,000, 14/8)
Chicago (Ian Scott, $1 million, 0/0, on IR all season)
Washington (Kenny Wright, $973,333, 7/1)
Carolina (Vinny Ciurciu, $966,667, 13/0)
Indianapolis (Mike Doss, $900,000, 8/1)
Atlanta (net-value comp; lost three for $9.567 million, 47/30 and one Pro Bowl; signed three for $4.964 million, 45/13)
Miami (non-compensatory pick)

As noted, the values of six of the comp picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the comp picks for Bennett and Edwards were in the fifth round (either one of them or both), if the comp pick for Shiancoe was in the sixth round, if the comp picks for Kaesviharn and Washington were in the seventh round (again, either one of them or both), or if the comp pick for Franklin was in the sixth round. Of course, other projected picks could be off by more than one round if the NFL happened to change the formula or increase the cutoff points by significantly more or less than I projected.

Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 13 teams that I’m projecting will receive true comp picks –

BALTIMORE
Lost – Adalius Thomas, Tony Pashos, Ovie Mughelli, Aubrayo Franklin.
Signed – None.

BUFFALO
Lost – Nate Clements, London Fletcher, Mike Gandy, Andre Davis.
Signed – Derrick Dockery, Langston Walker.

CAROLINA
Lost – Chris Draft, Vinny Ciurciu.
Signed – None.

CHICAGO
Lost – Alfonso Boone, Justin Gage, Todd Johnson, Ian Scott.
Signed – Anthony Adams.

CINCINNATI
Lost – Eric Steinbach, Kevin Kaesviharn, Kelley Washington, Anthony Wright, Tony Stewart, Marcus Wilkins.
Signed – None.

GREEN BAY
Lost – Ahman Green, David Martin.
Signed – Frank Walker.

INDIANAPOLIS
Lost – Nick Harper, Dominic Rhodes, Cato June, Mike Doss.
Signed – None.

MIAMI
Lost – Damien McIntosh, David Bowens, Sammy Morris, Jeff Zgonina.
Signed – Jay Feely, David Martin, Chris Liewinski.

N.Y. GIANTS
Lost – Visanthe Shiancoe, Jay Feely, Frank Walker.
Signed – Kawika Mitchell, Anthony Wright.

PHILADELPHIA
Lost – Michael Lewis, Donte Stallworth, Jeff Garcia, Roderick Hood, Shawn Barber.
Signed – Kevin Curtis, Ian Scott.

SAN DIEGO
Lost – Donnie Edwards.
Signed – None.

TENNESSEE
Lost – Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade, Robaire Smith.
Signed – Nick Harper, Justin Gage.

WASHINGTON
Lost – Derrick Dockery, T.J. Duckett, Warrick Holdman, Kenny Wright.
Signed – London Fletcher.

Anyone else who was lost or signed by one of those teams last offseason doesn’t qualify for the equation, for one reason or another.

If I’m wrong about any of the three bubble players (Chris Liewinski, Mike Doss and Marcus Wilkins) or any of the three players closes to the bubble (Vinny Ciurciu, Cameron Worrell and Paul Smith), that would affect the comp picks. Here’s what would happen in each instance –

If Chris Liewinski does not qualify for the equation and Vinny Ciurciu and Mike Doss do qualify, Miami would get a seventh-round comp pick for Jeff Zgonina between Chicago’s pick for Justin Gage and Cincinnati’s pick for Anthony Wright, and Miami would not get a non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round.

If Chris Liewinski and Vinny Ciurciu do not qualify and Mike Doss does qualify, Miami would get a seventh-round comp pick for Jeff Zgonina between Chicago’s pick for Justin Gage and Cincinnati’s pick for Anthony Wright, Carolina would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Ciurciu, and Miami would keep its non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round.

If Mike Doss does not qualify and Vinny Ciurciu and Chris Liewinski do qualify, Indianapolis would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss, and St. Louis would receive a non-compensatory pick after Miami’s non-compensatory pick, in order to fill out the maximum number of picks.

If Vinny Ciurciu does not qualify and Mike Doss and Chris Liewinski do qualify, Carolina would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Ciurciu, and St. Louis would receive a non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round, after Miami's non-compensatory pick.

If Mike Doss and Vinny Ciurciu do not qualify and Chris Liewinski does qualify,
Carolina would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Ciurciu, Indianapolis would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss, and St. Louis and the New York Jets would receive non-compensatory picks after Miami’s non-compensatory pick, in order to fill out the maximum number of picks.

If neither Chris Liewinski nor Mike Doss qualify and Vinny Ciurciu does qualify, Miami would get a seventh-round comp pick for Jeff Zgonina between Chicago’s pick for Justin Gage and Cincinnati’s pick for Anthony Wright, Indianapolis would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss, and Miami would keep its non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round.

If Chris Liewinski, Mike Doss and Vinny Ciurciu all do not qualify, Miami would get a seventh-round comp pick for Jeff Zgonina between Chicago’s pick for Justin Gage and Cincinnati’s pick for Anthony Wright, Carolina would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Ciurciu, Indianapolis would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss, and St. Louis would receive a non-compensatory pick after Miami’s non-compensatory pick, in order to fill out the maximum number of picks.

If Marcus Wilkins does not qualify, Atlanta would receive a third-round comp pick for Patrick Kerney instead of a net-value comp pick in the seventh round. The third-round comp pick for Kerney would be between Cincinnati’s pick for Steinbach and Baltimore’s pick for Thomas.

If Cameron Worrell does qualify for the equation and there are fewer than 32 comp picks awarded for higher-valued players, Chicago would receive a seventh-round comp pick for Worrell, and the last of any possible non-compensatory picks at the end of the seventh round would not be awarded. The seventh-round comp pick for Worrell would be after the comp picks awarded for every other player except Paul Smith but before Atlanta's net-value comp pick (if Atlanta gets a net-value comp pick) or any non-compensatory picks, if they’re awarded. If Chicago’s pick for Worrell is the 32nd-highest-valued comp pick awarded, Atlanta would not receive a net-value pick if it qualified for one. If there are 32 comp picks awarded for players of higher value than Worrell, Chicago would not receive a comp pick for him, even if he does qualify for the equation.

If Paul Smith qualifies, Cameron Worrell does not qualify and there have been fewer than 32 comp picks awarded, St. Louis would receive a seventh-round comp pick for Smith, and the last of any possible non-compensatory picks at the end of the seventh round would not be awarded. The seventh-round comp pick for Smith would be the final one awarded for a player but before Atlanta's net-value comp pick (if Atlanta gets a net-value comp pick) or any non-compensatory picks, if they’re awarded. If St. Louis’ pick for Smith is the 32nd-highest-valued comp pick awarded, Atlanta would not receive a net-value pick if it qualified for one. If there are 32 comp picks awarded for players of higher value than Smith, St. Louis would not receive a comp pick for him, even if he does qualify for the equation.

Under no circumstances will more than 32 picks be awarded, so a combination of the above scenarios or other mistakes in my projection might prevent one or more of the lowest-valued picks in my projection from being awarded, if they’re not one of the 32 highest-valued comp picks.

The NFL typically awards the compensatory picks on the second day of the Annual Meeting, which would be March 31 this year (the meeting will be March 30 to April 3 in Palm Beach, Fla.). After the comp picks are announced, I’ll review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect (although I’ve already presented some other possibilities).

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Feel free to post these projections (or the link to adamjt13.blog.com) on other message boards, as long as you give proper credit. Because I cannot register for and regularly visit every single message board where my projections are posted by others, please encourage anyone who has questions for me on other message boards to post them in the comments at adamjt13.blog.com, where I also posted my projections.

**RoyWilliams** · 03-16-2008, 11:22 AM

Id love to get DRC, if only we could get Sweed as well..then id go nuts.

**BULLITT** · 03-25-2008, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Professor

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2....cfm?writer=26

CHI Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
Yes, the Bears do need to wrap up their signal-caller for the future, but they also need an offensive lineman to add some depth and youth, and with Clady dropping past Kansas City and Denver, he's a perfect fit for Chicago.

Don't tease me.

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