Patriots @ Jets 1pm Est
Game-day details
Sun., 1 p.m. ET, Giants Stadium
Weather forecast from AccuWeather.com:
Intermittent clouds. High: 85. Low: 65.
Why To Watch
This will be the fourth meeting in the last year between Patriots coach Bill Belichick and former disciple Eric Mangini of the Jets, and this figures to be the most entertaining. The Patriots are the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, and most prognosticators project the Jets as a playoff team, too.
The Patriots redefined what it means to be championship driven this offseason. They added an all-around threat to their defense in linebacker Adalius Thomas, the prize of the free-agent market. Team officials decided last year's receiving corps wasn't good enough, so in comes Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker. They also added depth at tight end (Kyle Brady) and running back (Sammy Morris), giving quarterback Tom Brady his most diverse arsenal -- ever.
The Patriots will have to play the first four games of the NFL season without veteran safety Rodney Harrison, who was suspended by the league for using a banned substance.
The Jets addressed their biggest weakness by trading for running back Thomas Jones, who should lend more balance to an offense that was too reliant last season on Chad Pennington's right arm. Jones is recovering from a strained calf but should be ready by opening day. The offensive line should be improved with left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold a year older. The key is Pennington, whose ability to think on his feet and operate the no-huddle offense allows the Jets to exploit mismatches. The Jets win games simply by outsmarting opponents with their dizzying array of motions and shifts.
Patriots Keys For Success
1. Control the line of scrimmage. The Patriots' shift to more of zone-blocking scheme to better fit new feature back Laurence Maroney's skills. If Maroney is successful, Tom Brady will have time to locate second and third options in the passing game.
2. Throw to the wide receivers. Brady has a few big play-weapons on the perimeter. He'll throw downfield to Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth early but not often. Most of the wide receivers' big plays will come from short catch-and-run routes. Look for Wes Welker to have a bigger impact than Moss and Stallworth in Week 1.
3. Blitz the left side of the Jets' line. Left guard Adrian Clarke still is raw, and left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson still needs to add bulk. Clarke and Ferguson figure to get some help from the tight ends, but New England is sure to load up on that side with various blitz combinations to cause assignment breakdowns.
Jets Keys For Success
1. Run the ball. With thumper Darian Barnes at fullback and Thomas Jones at tailback, the Jets will have more of a power running game in '07. Two-tight end sets will allow for more double-team opportunities and better blitz pickups. The young offensive line returns with what the coaches say is an upgrade at left guard -- Clarke in for recently-traded Pete Kendall.
2. Pressure Brady. Brady is not at his best on the move and taking hits. The Jets must not allow Brady time to throw downfield to new burners Moss and Stallworth. Jets outside linebacker David Bowens' quickness will be used primarily in nickel packages and should improve the Jets' pass rush.
3. Use run blitzes. Blitzing New England's new zone-blocking schemes will take away the seams Maroney is so adept at locating and exploiting. Multiple personnel grouping and blitz packages, along with multiple fronts, will disrupt the Patriots' timing and recognition. The Jets also should use one or two blitzes from defensive backs.
When the Patriots Have the Ball
RUNNING GAME
Using more zone-blocking schemes this year, the New England coaches hope to create more seams for Laurence Maroney and most of those seams will appear at the linebacker bubbles. New England will attack the middle, getting the Jets' Jonathan Vilma to overpursue then cutback on him. The offensive linemen will double-team nose tackle Dewayne Robertson and then bounce off him to take on Vilma, who won't be able to run around blocks to fill the seam in time.
The Jets will bring the safeties into the box to help close the running lanes. The Jets also figure to use plenty of line slants and twists, cause the Patriots' linemen to hesitate. That hesitation could allow Vilma to slip his block and hit the hole quicker. The run blitzes will prevent double-teams and let the defense play downhill, the best way to beat the zone-blocking schemes. Advantage: Patriots.
PASSING GAME
Quarterback Tom Brady excels at finding second and third options. With the Jets' secondary worrying about Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker will see a lot of passes come his way in Week 1.
Stallworth will take Darrelle Revis deep when the rookie tries to jam him. Stallworth has good explosion off the line and uses his hands well to beat jams.
The Jets will use mostly zone-blitzes to pressure Brady and limit his options. Most of those blitzes will be frontside, forcing Brady to scramble and throw to his left. Advantage: Patriots.
THE BLITZ
The Jets will blitz more than usual from their nickel personnel sets. Linebackers David Harris and David Bowens will come off the edges; both have a quick first step, which could cause Patriots left tackle Matt Light problems. New England will help Light by having a running back chip the pass rushers before releasing into routes.
Help also will come from the tight ends with delay routes. The tight ends will widen the edge and give Light extra time to get set. Advantage: Patriots.
IN THE RED ZONE
This will Morris and Moss territory. Sammy Morris' hard-nose running style will be called on for goal-line and short-yardage carries. Moss wins the jump-ball contest against any Jets cornerback in the back corner of the end zone.
The Jets will load up and force Brady to throw. Moss doesn't use his hands well to beat press coverage, so the Jets will jam him hard in an effort to disrupt the timing of fade routes. Advantage: Patriots.
When the Jets Have the Ball
RUNNING GAME
The Jets will use predominately two-back sets to run the ball. They will change personnel groupings with the two-back sets with one, two or no tight ends. Runs to the tight end side will use off-tackle power-blocking schemes with double-teams and down blocks and fullback kickouts. With two tight ends, they will run to either side with quarterback Chad Pennington picking the side -- away from the blitz or away from certain defenders -- just before the snap. With no tight ends, the Jets will use isolation blocking schemes.
New England will align its linebackers in different positions to disguise blitzes and ruin blocking schemes. They will blitz differently for each of the Jets' personnel groupings. Expect the defensive backs to be involved as blitzers, too, when the Jets use two tight ends. Advantage: Jets.
PASSING GAME
Anticipating different run blitzes, the Jets will use a lot of three-step checks to get out of a potentially bad plays. Pennington is extremely accurate on short-to-intermediate passes, so look for the Jets to use a lot of "under" routes that could become big plays if the blitzers are picked up.
Wide receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery both are dangerous running routes over the middle. Coles will run most of the deeper crossing routes because he is better at finding open spaces in zones.
Coles and Cotchery were the happiest players to hear of Rodney Harrison's four-game suspension. That means they can run crossing routes without the fear of the hard-hitting (dirty?) Harrison delivering a big blow.
When rookie Brandon Meriweather is used in nickel situations, the Jets will attack him early with "under" routes. That will turn out to be costly. Advantage: Patriots.
THE BLITZ
New England is sure to blitz the Jets' inexperienced left side, tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and guard Jacob Bender. They will use run blitzes early and often to create third-and-long situations. Then, the Patriots will rush four and play two-deep coverage with hard man-to-man coverage underneath.
The Jets will throw screen passes and use three-step drops to the side to counter blitzes. The Patriots' defenders underneath will have to get around and over the picks that open those short routes. Advantage: Patriots.
IN THE RED ZONE
The Jets will use two-tight end formations to power the ball and throw to Sean Ryan on pass-action passes. This is where a play designed for wide receiver/running back/quarterback Brad Smith will be used. New England will matchup and play straight up in the red zone, trying to penetrate gaps. The defensive backs will take away inside routes and force Pennington to throw outside, where he is less accurate. Advantage: Jets.
The Bottom Line
New England's offensive line will control the line of scrimmage with little difficulty and allow Maroney and Morris to rush for at least 165 yards. Brady will be able to stay in the pocket and pick apart the Jets' secondary by using all his receivers. The New England defense will cause too many breakdowns in the Jets' protection schemes. After this game, the Patriots will leave little doubt as to why they are favored to win the AFC East.
Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 17
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Patriots @ Jets 1pm Est
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