NFL experts analyze who has the edge
Jay Glazer
FOXSports.com, Updated 1 day ago
With the Patriots-Colts showdown approaching on Sunday, the NFL is being given a much-needed break. A bye, if you will, from talk of HGH, steroids and SpyGate. A respite from Pacman, dogfighting and everything else that distracts from football.
Imagine this: We actually get one week where all people want to talk about is the game. What a novel approach to America's favorite Sunday ritual.
Rather than discuss whether or not it's time to move on from Chad Johnson in Cincy or how the Falcons will reel in Pro Bowl corner DeAngelo Hall from smearing his head coach, the football world is actually zeroing in on X's and O's.
There is no smut in this one, just football. This matchup couldn't have come at a better time for the league — a welcome distraction that gets us all back talking about the game itself. While the Patriots and Colts have clearly separated themselves from the pack, it seems everyone has on opinion over what order the teams will emerge from this game — who is 1-A and who is 1-B?
FOXSports.com conducted a poll to break down the big game to find out what true insiders think of this weekend's matchup. Our seven-member panel includes two NFL head coaches, two NFL Pro Bowl players, one general manager and two personnel executives. We granted anonymity based upon the fact that publicly discussing another team's personnel is considered as tactful as asking Michael Vick to be a celebrity guest judge at the Westminster Kennel Club.
We asked our seven experts to break down the game based upon head-to-head matchups with several players and positions. They were asked to pick a player, coach or unit they would rather have but could interpret it as in this game or overall. The results may surprise you.
Quarterback: Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning
General Manager: "Even. You take either guy. They're both great leaders, have arm strength and they make all the throws. They do everything you can ask of a quarterback and they're both durable. I don't see how anybody can give an edge one way or the other."
Personnel executive No 1: "Brady. Obviously it's very close, but I like his calmness in the pocket. He never gets rattled. I think Peyton has had more to work with in terms of weapons, too."
Personnel Executive No. 2: "Brady. Probably has more skills. He can make all the plays, more competitive than Manning. Manning is too cerebral for me. I want a guy who will get down in the dirt, get his hands dirty and make plays."
Head coach No. 1: "I would go with Manning at home. To me it's 1 A-plus and 1-A."
Head coach No. 2: "Manning. I think he's got a little quicker release. It's so darn close."
Pro Bowler No. 1: "Brady. He plays with his personnel better than anybody in the league."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "Brady. I have faced both of these guys, but I take Brady because he's done it year in and year out with different receivers each time. He gets it done regardless. As a player he's driven me crazier. It doesn't matter who he has to do it with, he always seems to find the guys wide open."
Edge: Brady 4-2-1 (tie). What a difference a year makes. One point for New England.
Head coach: Tony Dungy vs. Bill Belichick
General manager: "I'll go with Belichick because they've done it even though they've changed players, coaches, have had personnel go in and out. Tony manages his team beautifully, but by a nose I give it to Belichick because he's had more turnover."
Personnel executive No. 1: "Belichick based on the fact that he's won more championships. Dungy has a proven system that works, but Belichick is like a chameleon within his system."
Personnel executive No. 2: "Belichick. He is the master. He seems to be able to utilize his personnel, 53-man and dressing 45 each and every week, better than anyone else in the National Football League. Everyone has a role and he dresses the right guys for those roles each and every week. He has a knack of knowing exactly what he wants, finds the right personnel to fit the roles and gets the players to understand what those roles are. He gets to most out of every player on that roster."
Head coach No. 1: "Belichick. I think he's more involved in both sides of the game plan than Tony is."
Head coach No. 2: "Dungy. To me he's at home and they've had their number lately. I know they've changed some pieces, but look at what he did last year in leading them against New England."
Pro Bowler No. 1: "Both are brilliant, but I think Belichick is doing a great job of managing personalities on that team. They are humbly going about kicking peoples butts. Humbly."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "Shoot ... man ... that's tough. I'll go with Dungy. Dungy, whether good or bad, up and down, will leave it in the players' hands to win the game and make plays. Whenever a game plan fails for Belichick, it's harder for him to recover."
Edge: Belichick 5-2. Patriots lead 2-0.
Running backs: Joseph Addai vs. Laurence Maroney
General Manager: "Addai. I think he's just a better overall back. I love the way he runs and loved everything about him when he came out."
Personnel executive No. 1: "Addai based on his ability to be an all-around back. Picking up the blitz, catching and I think he's a little more savvy running the ball. I like Maroney too, but I'm taking Addai."
Personnel executive No. 2: "Maroney. He's more versatile for what they do in their offense. He gives them a bit of an edge in the backfield."
Head coach No. 1: "Maroney. I think they're so close. I think when he's healthy he's really special. I think Addai is more common."
Head coach No. 2: "Addai, I think he's a real good runner and I think he's really smart. Plus, he catches the ball out of the backfield really well."
Pro Bowler No. 1: "Addai. He's more involved in their offense than Maroney is in New England's."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "They're the same back. They're the same size, they're both slashers, tough as can be, they don't go out of bounds and they're used the same way. If I have to pick I choose Addai, only because Maroney has been less durable, but that's being ticky-tack."
Edge: Addai 5-2. New England 2, Indy 1
Receiving weapons
General manager: "(Marvin) Harrison, (Reggie) Wayne and (Dallas) Clark. I'd take them because I like their character better. They have a better track record when you hit adversity. I don't care how big you are, you'll hit adversity. I just like the way these three guys face it a lot more than (Randy) Moss and (Donte') Stallworth."
Personnel executive No. 1: "Wayne and a healthy Harrison. Pure reliability and route-running ability. I love Moss' ability to get down the field and I love (Wes) Welker's underneath ability, but overall as a unit I like the other guys. Wayne and Harrison, you're talking two of the best route runners in the league."
Personnel executive No. 2: "I'd probably go with the Colts trio, the reason being is their experience and having been together with a quarterback and knowing Manning's routine from pre-game through the game. As a group they have a better chance to succeed. Brady's guys fit what they do but (don't have) the experience level in knowing where your receivers are going to be in case the QB gets in trouble and needs to know where his guys will be."
Head coach No. 1: "If Moss is involved in the package, that package is better. To me this one isn't as close as the running backs and the QBs. I know what Indy's receivers have done, but I like the talent level of the Patriots better."
Head coach No. 2: "Harrison, Wayne, Clark. That's a tough one but I think Harrison and Wayne are better than Stallworth and Moss, but Moss is the top receiver in the bunch. Actually right now I'd rank them Moss, Wayne, Harrison, Stallworth. Clark is more versatile than Welker. But Moss is the one guy who can take over the game."
Pro Bowler No. 1: "Moss and them. Those three are the best combination of receivers who have been together in a long time. They all have different and explosive qualities that other people don't possess. Welker may be the best slot guy in football right now. Moss is the ultimate deep threat at the moment."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "Harrison, Wayne and Clark strike more fear into you because they've done it so many years."
Edge: Harrison, Wayne and Clark 5-2. This one surprised me, but give Indy their second point. New England 2, Indy 2
Dwight Freeney vs. Richard Seymour
General Manager: "I like Seymour better because he's a better all-around player. But Freeney in any particular game has a better chance of impacting a game. Week in and week out you'll get the same impact from Seymour, whereas because Freeney will get more attention brought his way, he'll have some games where he doesn't have as much consistency."
Personnel executive No. 1: "Freeney. Freak edge speed. Seymour is more all-around, you can play him inside, outside, 3-4, 4-3, but I go with Freeney because he can give you that freak speed. These are difficult questions. This isn't easy. Seymour is a heck of a player."
Personnel executive No. 2: "Both are having off years, obviously Seymour (with an) injury, but I'll probably give the edge to Freeney because being on that surface in the dome. If the game was on grass in New England I'd go with Seymour because he's more powerful."
Head coach No. 1: "Freeney. No question. You have to double him, you have to chip him, you have to account for him. Indy has two special players at the top of their positions in Bob Sanders and Freeney, they change the outcome of the game."
Head coach No. 2: "Seymour gives you more versatility against the run and the pass. I think New England does a good job of slowing Freeney and the Colts' pass rush down."
Pro Bowler No. 1: "Freeney. His array of pass rush moves is beyond comprehension."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "I'll go with Freeney. There's nothing like a pure pass rusher. He has more of a chance to change a game."
Edge: Freeney 5-2. Colts lead the Pats 3-2
Secondaries
General Manager: "Patriots. I think Sanders is a huge impact player, but the other three guys it's hard to get me excited (about them). In New England, (Asante) Samuels is a good corner, Harrison is a real good leader and then their peripheral guys are better than Indy's."
Personnel executive No. 1: "Indy because of Sanders and (Marlin) Jackson. I like Asante Samuels but those two players trump (Rodney) Harrison and Asante Samuel."
Personnel executive No. 2: "I would say the Pats have the slight edge as a group. They've done a better job of shutting down the big-time receivers. Sanders plays the run very, very well, but in this game with Brady they can isolate him and keep him out of the play."
Head coach No. 1: "Indy. Sanders is the best in the league at his position. Both secondaries aren't as good as the receivers they are facing."
Head coach No. 2: "New England. I haven't seen them as much as I'd like on film, but I think their scheme is more problematic. If there's one player I'd take (it would be) Sanders, but overall I'll take the Patriots."
Pro Bowler No. 1: Indy because Antoine Bethea and Bob Sanders both play well in the box. They're both big-time hitters, but I think they now use their corners physical (nature) in that scheme, too. That's what they've always needed and now they got it. Plus, they're all big so they can match up with anybody they face."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "New England. Bob Sanders is a heck of a player, but we're judging the whole secondary."
Edge: Patriots 4-3. They tie it up 3-3
Special teams
General Manager: "(Adam) Vinatieri is a huge, huge plus for Indy, but coverage teams and return game I give the edge overall to New England."
Personnel executive No. 1: "I call it a tie. You can't say because neither has shown a weakness."
Personnel executive No. 2: "It's a toss-up. They're both coached so well."
Head coach No. 1: "The Patriots' young kicker has done well, Colts have good coverage units, Vinatieri in the dome at home. Each one of these we have talked about you can really flip a coin with every one of them. I think you can flip a coin on this one too."
Head coach No. 2: "Patriots. Their defensive personnel is more suited to having good special teams."
Pro Bowler No. 1: "New England, based on their return game."
Pro Bowler No. 2: "Indy. Vinatieri gives them the edge. The way that game could go it could come down to the kicker."
Edge: Patriots 3-1-3.
Winner: New England 4, Colts 3. By the most narrow margin of victory. If Sunday's score ends up as close as our poll, what a game it will be.
LINK
FOX Sports on MSN - NFL - NFL experts analyze who has the edge
Colts vs Pats NFL experts analyze who has the edge
Colts vs Pats NFL experts analyze who has the edge
Linear Mode
