Professor Ellis D Trails Week 10 Syllabus
I know what you all are thinking, and it has been a couple of weeks since you were last informed and entertained by your esteemed fantasy football educationalist. When in fact, I was abroad studying the effects of psychotropic substances exercised in unanimity with great quantities of alcoholic beverages. I wanted to concoct a supreme cocktail, if you will, to reinvigorate the esteemed chairman. A prescription that would cure what ails and hereby rendering his malady completely dissipated. I learned many things about how many periods of our lives are intertwined and entangled, but was unable to transcribe such a glorious brew. I will continue to Post my syllabus for those of you who wish to be enlightened and graced with a future fantasy football championship.
Sunday, November 12 2006 1:00pm
BAL @ TEN
There are points where Baltimore looks dominating and other times they look old, Brian has taken the reigns and got a boost from his offense last week. That will continue this week. Tennessee started to think that they were players after beating the Redskins, but reality hit in Jacksonville last week.
Steve McNair - He gets to face his old team and has to be salivating at the chance to face that defense.
Jamal Lewis - He is not break through and burst away Jamal that we used to know. Although, he is starting to learn about patience at the line helping to find the hidden holes that he can run through. Tennessee is terrible against the run and Lewis should find plenty of holes to run through.
Derrick Mason - I see his numbers getting better with BB as the play caller.
Vinny Young - He gets another lesson in football when facing a defense that pounces on fresh meat like a tiger in a Las Vegas Magic and Entertainment show.
BUF @ IND
The loss of McGahee will hurt, even though he sucks. He does do well against poor run defenses and Indy is pretty bad. The Colts are the only undefeated team left in the league and gets to start the chatter about what round they will lose in the playoffs.
JP Loserman - I have actually given into the fact that Loser-man has done much better than I foresaw. Freeney only has half a sack this year after posting double digit sacks every year prior. JP, meet turf.
Anthony Thomas - Before we start getting into the, "who is the A-Train, Thomas or Alstott debates," let’s look at this matchup. Indy is giving up a ton of yards on the ground and if the A-Train can bust through even a little bit, this game will be closer than most would imagine.
Lee Evans - Although he has had a couple of good games late, he is still bordering on bust for me. I predicted some big numbers for Lee and that hasn’t quite happened. We are only halfway through the season, but Lee has to start turning it on throughout the whole game, not just one quarter.
Peyton Manning - Buffalo’s defense is good but can be beat. Whitner is playing well at Safety, but Manning will pick them apart.
Joey Addai - His breakout game is coming soon, could be this week.
The Dynamic Duo - It is really too difficult to say which one, if not both, are going to have a good week, but I would never sit either.
CLE @ ATL
The Browns got run all over by LT in the second half last week and now get to face a Falcon’s team that lost to the Lions, ouch. I knew there was no way that Vick would put three stellar performances in a row, especially being on the road. He could have a good passing day, but truly he won’t need to.
Charlie Frye - Atlanta has been lit up lately through the air including 1 300 and 2 400 yard passing games in the last 4. This could be a good game for Charlie.
Braylon Edwards - He finally had a good game for the first time in 4 games last week against San Diego. Cleveland has played some tough pass defenses this year and welcomes a change this week.
Kellen Winslow - You wish he would score more, but this guy is consistent. He has at least 7 catches in 5 of the 8 games this year.
Michael Vick - He has 7 TD’s in two games and people start to say that Vick has finally mastered the passing game. Uhhh, No. The truth is that if he didn’t throw those TD’s, he would have passing stats that are benchable for any other quarterback on any other team. He is still barely at 50% completion.
Warrick Dunn - Cleveland surrenders a lot of yards on the ground, but hasn’t given up a lot of TD’s, less than one per game. Watch Dunn pile up the yards, but don’t expect paydirt.
Alge Crumpler - *Random Thought* I wonder if Alge is related to ex-Seahawk TE, Carlester Crumpler, remember that guy? Alge has tied his career high for TD’s with 6 this year, don’t expect too many more.
GB @ MIN
Green Bay gets to go play in a dome, where he has had some of his worst games as a pro, and those were in the days when the Packers were good. Minnesota has been exposed as a team that cannot be run on, but can be passed on with a spread offense.
Brett Favre - Everyone knows about Brett’s lack of success in Domes, but Minnesota really cannot be run on and if the Packers want to have a chance at winning this game, Brett will need to be on point.
Ahman Green - Vikings are giving up about 3 yds/carry and less than 70 a game. Start someone else if you can.
Donald Driver - As long as the Packers keep losing, Driver will thrive.
Brad Johnson - I have not recommended Brad Johnson at any point this season, but against the worst pass defense in the league, well, there are many worse options out there. His arm looks like it has nothing left on it.
Chester Taylor - He is nursing a sore calf, but this is a must win game for the Vikings and he will do what it takes to get in there.
Troy Williamson - The Human Sieve is back.
HOU @ JAX
Houston is terrible and they know it. Super Mario has been playing better and DeMeco Ryans is having a great rookie season. They hung in there with the Giants last week and almost snuck away with a win. Garrard has re-energized the Jaguars and now Leftwich is out of a job.
Andre Johnson - The NFL’s leading receiver is the only player you should be starting from the Texan’s lineup.
David Garrard - Leftwich seems healthy enough to play, but Garrard is winning games. If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.
Fred Taylor - Houston is giving up over 130 yards rushing a game and between Taylor and Drew, that mark will be easily passed.
Ernest Wilford - Once you think that it’s one guy, it’s another. Start Matt Jones this week.
KC @ MIA
Kansas City is rolling along nicely with Huard, which is good for them as now they can let Green get all of his senses back before letting nearly 400 pound monsters try to put him out again. Miami once again knocked a team from the ranks of the undefeated at the midway or later part of the season. I have seen them do it numerous times. Harrington is playing about as well as anyone could have predicted, but that is nothing to brag about.
Damon Huard - The number 2 rated passer, (only trailing Manning) Huard has quietly put together a nice season. He is on pace to get 3200 yards with 22 TD’s and 2 int's. That is pretty damn good. His only bad game was at Pittsburgh. Miami is tough against the pass; expect a heavy dose of the next guy on my list.
Larry Johnson - Miami may be giving up 100 rushing yards a game, but only Denver and Chicago (1 each), have given up less rushing TD’s than Miami (2).
Tony G - Tony has really come on in the last 3 games and is now on pace for his first 1,000 yard season since 2004.
Joey Harrington - He has thrown at least 2 int’s in each game this season. He is terrible, people.
Ronnie Brown - Brown broke out against a stingy Bear’s defense, which makes you question his 12 rushes for 49 yards against Houston. This is the National Fakeout League in the very essence of the phrase.
Chris Chambers - There has been a Chambers sighting and with him being the streaky player that he is in his career, I wouldn’t start him. In all of Miami’s odd games this season he averages 4 catches for 39 yards and has not scored all season. In Miami’s even games this year he averages 4.25 catches for 50 yards and, here’s the kicker, 1 TD a game. He has scored in every even game and none of the odd games. This is game 9 for the Dolphins.
NYJ @ NE
The Jets come off the bye and get ready to play a NE team that is once again going to be without the services of Rodney Harrison. New England is playing inspired football again and will continue to march toward a division crown this week.
Chad Pennington - New England has been gaining steam on defense during the four game winning streak prior to the loss to the Colts that saw them losing defensive leader Rodney Harrison for the season. Chad tossed for 300 yards in game two of this season against the Patriots and he will be looking for some revenge after falling just short of a great comeback in that game.
Leon Washington - After barely playing in the first 4 games, Leon only trails Maroney and Addai in rushing yards for Rookies. New England is stifling against the run. He’ll be lucky to hit 50 yards in this game.
Laveranues Coles - Coles insists that his injuries were not bothering him during the games, but after averaging nearly 8 catches a game in the first 4 games, he has only averaged 4 catches per contest over the last 4 games. We’ll see if the week off helped. One of his 3 100 yard games this year came against New England and 1 of his 3 TD’s as well.
Tom Brady - The Jets are giving up slightly less yards per game than Houston. This is a must win game for the Jets and Brady knows this.
Dillon and Maroney - Together, they average over 100 yards a game. Dillon has twice as many TD’s as Maroney. Maroney may get you a few points, but he won’t be really worth it until the job is his and his alone. One note for these guys is no team has given up more rushing TD’s than the Jets who give up nearly 2 a game.
Ben Watson - If you think it will ever change, that Brady will one day pick one guy to go to every week, you are crazy. Watson is a must start solely on potential, but don’t ever
expect anything or you will be burned.
SD @ CIN
Philip Rivers has looked solid all season, (I told you) but how does that translate to fantasy value. He will have some solid numbers, but when LT gets on a roll, expect the numbers to dip as winning games in San Diego is bad for fantasy quarterbacks. Cincinnati is about to be in a must win situation. Baltimore is rolling along and if the Bengals want to win the division then they need to win games, especially at home.
Philip Rivers - He continues to be the leader under center. He will be ready for games and make few mistakes. Having Gates and LT help, a lot.
LT - He has 14 TD’s already. He is sick.
Gates - He is due for a score this week.
San Diego WR’s - These guys are nothing more than situational players. The WR’s average 2 catches a game each. This is Gates and LT’s team.
Carson Palmer - After losing to division leader Baltimore last week, Cincy is in a must win situation and Carson will be up to the task.
Rudi Johnson - The Bengals are facing a tough defense this week, but they need to give the ball to Rudi. After getting 4 TD’s in his first four games, he has had 2 since.
Ochente y Cinco - I know he calls himself “Ocho Cinco,” but that literally means 8-5, or eight - five. Whatever his damn name is this week, he better start scoring some “deporte aterrizaje”. I know it’s a stretch, but it fits.
TJ Houshmanzadeh - He is so good, that people spell his name right with ease.
SF @ DET
San Fran will be good in a few years and Alex Smith will be a fine QB. San Fran couldn’t do anything against the Vikings. Detroit’s defense is a lot more giving than Minnesota. The Niner’s defense obviously needs more talent and time. Detroit upset Atlanta last week and definitely plays better at home than on the road, but they also play down to their opponents.
Alex Smith - After starting the year getting killed by the pass Detroit has played much better only giving up 172 yards per game in the air through the last 4.
Frank Gore - There have been only two RB’s to do well against the Lions this year. Chester Taylor and Leon Washington. They have stopped the likes of SA, Thomas Jones, Ahman Green, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee and Warrick Dunn.
John Kitna - Kitna has played well since the Minnesota game and has won 2 out of 3 games. Make that 3 out of 4.
Kevin Jones - Again, take out the Minnesota game and KJ has 7 TD’s in 5 games and plays a defense that only the Jets have given up more rushing TD’s than.
Roy Williams - Everybody gets stats against the 49ers.
WAS @ PHI
The redskins have to have the rest of the NFL perplexed. The beat the Cowboys and Jaguars, but lose to the Titans. Which team will show up this week? The Eagles are coming off a bye that met them with a three game losing streak. The Birds have been nearly unbeatable coming off a bye in the Reid era.
Mark Brunell - The Eagles are still third in the league in sacks and bring a fierce bunch up front. Mark is old and inconsistent. Without Moss, Brunell will be playing from behind and might get some garbage time stats.
Clinton Portis - Eagle Killer. He has 5 TD’s in 4 games against the birds and with the problems the Eagles have had stopping the run lately, Portis is their key.
Chris Cooley - As the only real receiving threat if Moss is out, he will be keyed on by the defense. I don’t see him being much of a factor.
Three Blind Mice - See how they run.
Donavon McNabb - The QB with the second most TD passes in the league faces the defense that has surrendered the most passing TD’s in the league. Look out.
Brian Westbrook - He is on pace for 1800 total yards and 14 TD’s and nearly 80 receptions. How could anyone think that he isn’t a first round pick? The redskins have been tough to score on running, but the Eagles don’t run much.
Ronnie Brown - He barely cracks the top 50 in receptions, but is in the top 20 in yards and is 5th in TD’s. In fact two of the top 3 receivers as far as per catch average are Eagles – Reggie Brown: 19.3 and Donte Stallworth: 20.3. Minimum 15 receptions.
Sunday, November 12 2006 4:05pm
DEN@ OAK
Denver’s defense plays so well, it is almost enough for the offense not to lose the game. I just don’t know if the Broncos defense can play this well all year and into the playoffs. Oakland is still terrible and playing like a classless bunch of cretins.
Jake Plummer - Jake has staved off Cutler thus far. With one game separating first and third and Denver facing an important 3 game stretch against division opponents with two being on the road, Denver needs this game.
For Whom the Bells Toll - Oakland has been stellar against the pass with the play of Asomugha and Washington. With Tatem turf toed, Mike may have to have a great game. Shanny has said that the guys that practice well will play and with the Denver RB situation, start one at your own risk.
Javon Walker - They finally have a replacement for Rod Smith, so now he can retire at the age of 68.
Lamont Jordan - He might as well be Lamont Sanford this week against that run defense.
Randy Moss - He has had 3 pretty good games in the last 4, but he just doesn’t score. I know Shell is conservative, but the guy has to let Walter chuck it up sometime.
Sunday, November 12 2006 4:15pm
DAL @ ARI
Dallas somehow found ways to lose a game they should have won. TO’s drop, the missed FG, the stupid Face Mask at the end of the game. Most penalized team in the league is not something you usually associate with Bill Parcells.
Tony Romo - No more statue to ridicule. This guy has three full games under his belt and you know there are going to be some struggles with that O-line. Arizona made Chicago look bad. Also, only New England and Denver have given up fewer passing TD’s
Julius Jones - He gets all the yards while Barber gets the scores. Just another RBBC to avoid.
TO - He promises a big second half, I don’t see it. One thing Parcells and the team said at the beginning of all the hoopla was that TO wasn’t getting 100 receptions and he wasn’t going to be the only weapon. Well, he is right on pace for 88 catches, 1100 yards and 12 TD’s. That sounds about right to me.
Terry Glenn - Since Romo took over he has barely been visible in the offense. Romo was on the NFL network saying that he will throw to who is open, but you know TO is going to push this young kid. Maybe TO can ruin another QB before his career even started.
Jason Witten - Just the opposite of Glenn’s situation is Witten. Since Romo has been the guy, Witten’s numbers have significantly increased. Start him with confidence.
Matt Leinart - 3 of Dallas’ losses have come on the road this year and Matt is poised to get his first win with the return of Larry Fitzgerald.
Edge - Dallas is better against the run than they are the pass, but the Cardinals know that to win this game, they are going to have to pass the ball.
Boldin and Fitzy - The super twins are back and look out. Newman has played real nice this year and he and his teammates will have their hands full with this receiving corp. at full strength for the first time in several weeks.
NO @ PIT
New Orleans continues to outplay their opponents much longer than some thought. Brees has been a leader and Colston has easily been the steal of the draft. Pittsburgh is one loss away from being out of the running as far as I’m concerned. I thought the superbowl loser is supposed to struggle more.
Drew Brees - Only McNabb, Bulger and Manning have more passing yards than Brees. I have been truly amazed at the poise that Brees has shown moving to a new city and coming off an injury. He is the leader of that team.
Deuce - As much as Bush has helped give Deuce some space, he has also hurt him by reducing his carries per game. He is averaging fewer than 14 carries per game. At some point, the running game or lack thereof will hurt them.
Bush - He can catch the all and get 6 yards. He gets less than 3 yards a rush. Why is he so special?
Marques Colston - The unquestioned rookie of the year continues to get better and better.
Ben Sucksaberger - He is playing his rookie year this year because he just realized that he forgot to have one in the beginning of his career. Can a guy force more passes than he is right now? Hey Ben, did you forget about Miller? He can catch too.
FWP - After a slot start to the season, Willie has turned it on with 8 TD’s in 6 games. It also seems like Cowher is getting Parker more involved in the passing game, which is nice for PPR leagues.
Hines Ward - Hines has more than doubled his season stats in the last 3 weeks alone. In PPR leagues, he has averaged 26 points over the last three weeks and looks to continue that this week and beyond.
STL @ SEA
St Louis is playing well, but need to get back on track and avoiding a season sweep from Seattle would go along way in doing just that. Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris are certainly not in the same caliber as Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander, but they have been getting the job done so far.
Marc Bulger - Many people thought that with the departure of Martz, the passing game would struggle. Not many aside from your professor predicted good things for Mr. Bulger. 13 TD’s and 1 int and 2nd in the league in yards. Those are MVP numbers at the halfway mark.
Steven Jackson - Steven broke out in the passing game last week with 13 receptions. With Fisher lost for the season, he should continue to see more passes coming his way.
Torry Holt - Big Game has been quiet in the last two games. In fact, the last time he went off was against the Seahawks. This is a BIG divisional GAME.
Seneca Wallace - The Rams are going to be looking for revenge in this game and Seneca won’t be able to keep up like Hasselback could.
Maurice Morris - Why bring SA back when Hass isn’t there? Because you need to win key divisional games.
Deion Branch - Darrell Jackson is still the man in Seattle, but Deion has provided a nice weapon for Seneca.
Jerramy Stevens - Make sure you got your cup this week Jerramy.
Sunday, November 12 2006 8:15pm
CHI @ NYG
The streak is over. This is a good thing for them; they can get back to playing smash-mouth football. Urlacher is about as tough as they come and I am sure that he will play. The Giants struggled to beat the Texans and need to step up to play with the Bears. Strahan being out is big for Grossman.
Rex Grossman - Has the old bears QB luck returned? In his last three games Rex has 4 TD’s with 7 int’s and barely hitting 50% of his passes with only 200 yards per game. This included a great game against a poor San Fran pass defense. With three road games upcoming, which Grossman will we get and how much will the loss of Berrian hurt him?
Thomas Jones -
Rashied Davis - No Berrian means more balls for Muhammad, but it also means more chances for this kid. He is a kick returner with some speed in the open field. Grossman needs a guy like this while Berrian is out. He is pretty short though, about 4 inches smaller than Berrian.
Eli Manning - He needs to get off to a good start in this game. Unlike many other games this year, the Bears will not let up in the fourth.
Tiki - Once again, he leads the NFL in rushing, but has only scored 1 TD this year and that was last week. Chicago has only given up one rushing TD all year and that was a 1 Yard sneak by John Kitna in week 2, when the Lions were already down 24-0.
Jeremy Shockey - Shockey has to keep up his scoring to help the Giants win. He has scored 4 times in the last 4 games.
Tim Carter - Toomer is out for the year and Burress is hurting. Not much left.
Monday, November 13 2006 8:30pm
TBB @ CAR
Tampa got smacked around by New Orleans last week and hasn’t won since Bryant’s career kick. Carolina is the better team and is playing at home and coming off the bye. Tampa might want to start thinking about next year’s draft.
Bruce Gradkowski - Bruce isn’t going to wow anyone, he’ll put up 150 and maybe one score this week, if he is lucky.
Carnell Williams - There is no Cadillac here, Maybe a Pinto.
Joey Galloway - He loves playing the Saints; he is not playing the Saints this week.
Michael Clayton - So much for a comeback year.
Jake Delhomme - If Brees and Colston can go off like they did against Tampa, Delhomme and Smith might set a record this week.
DeShaun Foster - DeShaun faces a run defense in Tampa that can be run on.
Steve Smith - Brian Kelly being injured is not good when Steve Smith comes to town.
Top 10 QB’s for Week 10
1. Donavon McNabb
2. Peyton Manning
3. Jake Delhomme
4. Tom Brady
5. Carson Palmer
6. Marc Bulger
7. John Kitna
8. Brett Favre
9. Matt Leinart
10. Tony Romo
Top 10 RB’s for Week 10
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Larry Johnson
4. Kevin Jones
5. Clinton Portis
6. Ronnie Brown
7. Chester Taylor
8. Frank Gore
9. Maurice Morris
10. Rudi Johnson
Top 10 WR’s for Week 10
1. Torry Holt
2. Steve Smith
3. Marvin Harrison
4. Marques Colston
5. Donald Driver
6. Roy Williams
7. Darrell Jackson
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Javon Walker
10. Larry Fitzgerald
Sleeper of the Week – Anthony Thomas
Indianapolis’ run defense is downright terrible. Thomas should be able to run through the defense to the tune of 90 yards and a touchdown. For a guy that was available in most leagues until Monday, he makes a sneaky play this week, especially for disgruntled McGahee owners.
Bust of the Week – Ahman Green
Ahman has been solid this year. In fact, right now he has my vote for comeback player of the year. However, Minnesota has been impossible to run on and Green Bay’s o-line is not going to opening any holes for him.
Football is such a game of ups and downs, lows and highs, peaks and valleys. Just because Reggie Williams is scoring like Jerry Rice for two weeks doesn’t mean that you should start him over a guy like Donald Driver. Fantasy Football is a 16 game run. You have to develop a core and for the most part, barring injury or other unforeseen disaster, you have to stick with what you got. You don’t need to revamp your team at 0-3. Patience is a virtue my fantasy brethren. Look for consistency in a sea of variation. That is where you find gems like Marques Colston. I will be back next week with another look into Fantasy Football, until then………… Always go with your gut and don’t look back.
Professor Ellis D Trails.
Professor Ellis D Trails Week 10 Syllabus
Professor Ellis D Trails Week 10 Syllabus
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