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Old 11-14-2006, 10:58 PM   #1 (permalink)
P-Rez25
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Default Comeback Analysis

heres some interesting stats taken from ESPN.com about the shoot out that took place in Cincy:

San Diego-Cincinnati Analysis: Trailing 28-7 at intermission, here are the results of San Diego possessions in the second half: touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, punt, touchdown, victory formation. What was striking about the Bolts' comeback is that it was not triggered by turnovers, as comebacks usually are: Cincinnati coughed up the ball only once in the second half. What was striking as well is that the Bengals never let up: when Cincinnati scored to take a 38-28 lead at the end of the third quarter, I thought the Chargers' comeback might expire. Next, what was striking is that even after collapsing from a 28-7 advantage to a 49-41 deficit, Cincinnati did not fold, reaching first down at the San Diego 15 before four consecutive incompletions ended the game. And of course it was striking that a Marvin Lewis-coached club could not hold a 21-point lead at home.

But here's what was really great about the San Diego comeback -- the Chargers did it with a balanced attack, not by going pass-wacky. In the first half, San Diego coaches called 16 passes and 10 rushes; in the second half, 23 passes and 14 rushes. TMQ preaches: Unless it's late, when you're behind do not start throwing on every down, because this hands the game to the defense. Call from the regular playbook, mix the pass and run, get a touchdown and then see what the world looks like. Fourteen times during an historic 42-point second half, San Diego coaches simply handed the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson -- and it worked because Cincinnati was in a soft nickel or dime look for the entire second half. Running backs love to rush against a soft nickel. There was exciting play after exciting play in this contest: Tomlinson running for 14 yards on a key third-and-2; Philip Rivers twice at the goal line faking to star tight end Antonio Gates then throwing touchdown passes to his backup Brandon Manumaleuna; a 74-yard touchdown pass to Chad Johnson; three single-play touchdown drives. But what meant most in the end is that San Diego didn't panic, rather it kept mixing plays. And now you know what I am going to say about TMQ's Law of the Obvious: Sometimes all a team needs to do is run up the middle for no gain, and things will be fine. From the point it was the home team leading 28-7 in the third quarter, to the Bengals' final possession when they were forced to throw on every down, Cincinnati coaches called 12 passes and 11 runs. Five of the passes fell incomplete, stopping the clock. When you're playing with a big second-half lead, don't call more passes than runs.

Terminology note: Last week TMQ said the short-yardage action on which the quarterback fakes up the middle then backhand-flips to the tailback sprinting outside was dubbed Flip 90 by its designer, Mike Martz. Scouts Inc.'s K.C. Joyner points out that in Martz's system, "90" meant outside left; many teams use odd numbers for offensive left gaps, even numbers for right gaps. On his key third-and-2 run, Tomlinson took this odd-looking action to the right against a seven-man Cincinnati blitz. Hence, he ran Flip 80.
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