Why To Watch
The Colts and Texans meet for the second time since Oct. 23. In Week 7, the Texans established the run early and created turnovers, resulting in a 14-14 tie at the half. However, that was the end of the good news for Houston. In the second half, the Colts held the Texans to minus-4 yards of total offense and scored 24 consecutive points to pull away for a 38-20 victory.
For the rematch, Houston will have dynamic wide receiver Andre Johnson. He missed the bulk of four games with a calf injury but returned to action last week and caught nine passes for 91 yards against the Jaguars. Quarterback David Carr is coming off his best game of the season (22-of-30, 219 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions), taking some pressure off the running game.
The undefeated Colts could be in for a letdown emotionally after having finally beaten longtime nemesis New England 40-21 on Monday. Even if one or two players aren't up to par, the offense is loaded with playmakers capable of picking up the slack. The headlines go to quarterback Peyton Manning, running back Edgerrin James and wide receiver Marvin Harrison, but the team has additional weapons in wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley and tight end Dallas Clark.
Defense, however, is the emerging story in Indianapolis and has been the difference this season. Led by ends Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock and the play of third-year linebacker Cato June, the Colts have the NFL's fourth-ranked defense.
Carr might want to call in sick Sunday. In the Week 7 matchup, the Colts sacked him five times and knocked him down on several other occasions, and Carr completed six passes for 48 yards. For the season, Carr has been sacked a league-high 43 times and faces the NFL's best pass rush Sunday.
Texans Keys For Success
1. Use two-tight end formations. The offensive line couldn't slow down the Colts' front four on Oct. 23. The Texans should adjust and use two tight ends for much of the game. The two tight ends will force Freeney, Mathis and Brock to align wider and will be able to assist the offensive tackles in blocking them. This formation also would benefit the running game. And it's not as if the tight ends catch many passes -- Mark Bruener, Marcellus Rivers and Matt Murphy have combined for six receptions and zero touchdowns -- so keeping them in to block shouldn't limit Carr's options.
2. Spread the wealth in the passing game. Carr had his best performance against Jacksonville because he went through his progressions and found favorable matchups. Earlier in the season, he was forcing passes to Johnson in double- and triple-coverage, resulting in pass breakups, interceptions and great frustration from other receivers. The key, of course, is pass protection.
3. Use base personnel to defend the pass. When the Colts use three-receiver sets, most opponents use nickel personnel and align in a soft 3-5-3 zone (three rushers, five underneath defenders and three downfield defenders). Against this defense, Manning often audibles to a run. James burned Houston's 3-5-3 scheme for 139 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7. Houston should defend the three-receiver attack with its base 3-4 defense to help neutralize James. The onus will be on outside linebackers Shantee Orr and Antwan Peek to stay with the slot receiver until they can hand him off to a safety.
Colts Keys For Success
1. Overload one side when blitzing. The Texans are terrible in pass protection, surrendering an NFL-high 5.3 sacks per game. Houston coaches have shifted personnel and tinkered with protection schemes -- all to no avail. Carr is most vulnerable when opponents send three or four defenders at one side of the line. Houston's blockers haven't shown the ability to communicate and make proper adjustments. Expect the Colts to overload one side of the line and force the Texans' guard and tackle to block three or four defenders.
2. Be more disciplined against the run. In Week 7, Houston rushed for 119 yards in the first half and controlled the pace of the game. Defensive linemen and linebackers were not staying in their gaps, enabling Dominick Davis to cut back and bounce runs outside. Indianapolis corrected the problem at halftime and held Houston to 14 yards rushing thereafter.
3. Limit turnovers. Manning had two turnovers in the first half against Houston in Week 7. At times, Manning has had trouble dissecting 3-4 schemes this season. In his three games facing mostly 3-4 defenses, he has six touchdowns and five interceptions in contrast to eight touchdowns and one interception when playing against 4-3 defenses. This will be his third consecutive game facing the 3-4, so he must show improvement and take care of the ball.
Injuries at a glance
Texans injuries
11/10/05 Andre Johnson WR Hamstring Probable for Week 10
11/10/05 Domanick Davis RB Knee Questionable for Week 10
11/10/05 Jerome Mathis WR Hamstring Questionable
10/17/05 Kailee Wong LB Knee Out for season
Colts injuries
No injuries reported
The Bottom Line
From a personnel standpoint, Houston does not match up well against Indianapolis. However, the Texans stayed with the Colts for a half on Oct. 23 by forcing turnovers and running the ball effectively. Don't expect a repeat because the Colts will be more efficient on offense early and not allow the Texans to hang around. Expect the Colts' pass rush to overwhelm the Texans' offensive line and set the tone for a dominating victory.
Pick: Colts 30, Texans 13
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Texans @ Colts
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