Why To Watch
The word that best sums up the NFC is parity. It’s only Week 6, there no longer are any undefeated teams, and no team has established itself as a conference power. That is good news to both Carolina and Detroit, teams that remain very much in the thick of things despite inconsistent starts.
Detroit found a spark on offense last week, using multiple running backs to rush for 169 yards and four TDs against a Baltimore defense that was ranked second in the NFL against the run and had not given up a rushing TD this season. The Lions almost doubled their season point total in one game, racking up 35 points after scoring only 36 in the first four games. However, they got another poor performance out of Joey Harrington, and they need the running game to continue to excel to keep the ball out of Harrington’s hands.
Carolina’s Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith form one of the league's most dangerous passing combinations. With a healthy Stephen Davis getting the tough yards between the tackles, the Panthers' offense looks similar to the unit that took them to the Super Bowl two seasons ago. But their defense does not resemble their Super Bowl defense, and they need to improve on last week’s performance, when they gave up 464 yards at Arizona.
Panthers Keys For Success
1. Get an early lead to make Kevin Jones a non-factor. Jones is averaging only 17 carries per game this season, down from 24.5 he averaged in the final five games last season. That's because when the Lions are behind, coach Steve Mariucci prefers to play Shawn Bryson, who is a better blocker in pass protection. In the Lions' two victories, Jones averaged 25.5 carries. If Carolina can get a significant early lead, which it has done only once this year, it can take Jones out of the game.
2. Consistently blitz Harrington. Simply put, Harrington loses his composure when he sees the blitz coming. Five of his seven picks this year have come as a result of a blitz, and his completion rating drops significantly when he is under pressure. Though the Panthers have only five sacks this year, just getting pressure alone may be enough to shake up Harrington.
3. Get everyone involved on offense. In Week 4 against Green Bay, the Packers’ plan was to shut down Steve Smith, who had 23 catches in three games. They held Smith to only two catches, but Delhomme connected with seven other receivers, and had his best passing day of the season. Carolina must continue to spread the ball around so Detroit cannot game plan for only one player.
Lions Keys For Success
1. Utilize three-step drops to beat the pass rush. The Panthers have one of the NFL’s most gifted defensive fronts, but sit near the bottom of the league in sacks with only five. This is because offenses have been using consistent three-step drops, making it difficult for Julius Peppers & Co. to get their hands on quarterbacks. Expect the Lions to do the same, but that means their young receiving corps will need to beat jams, get off the line and get open in a hurry.
2. Give their receivers time to get open. When his receivers get jammed at the line or don’t get a clean release, Harrington needs to do a better job of extending the play in the pocket with his feet to buy time for his receivers. He has been too quick to give up on routes and check down to a back or a tight end. To make plays against a tough Carolina defense, Harrington needs to allow his receivers to get themselves into position to make plays.
3. Run the ball at Peppers. Although the Lions have struggled to run the ball this year, they have been most successful running to their right behind guard Damien Woody and tackle Kelly Butler. They also want to attack Peppers, forcing him to lock in with Butler and focus on stopping the run. This will make it easier for Butler to defend Peppers in the passing game, because Peppers will not be able to come off the ball just throwing pass-rush moves for concern of being pushed out of position vs. the running game.
Injuries at a glance
Panthers injuries
9/29/05 Ken Lucas CB Shoulder Questionable for Week 4
9/29/05 Kris Jenkins DT ACL tear Out for 2005 season
Lions injuries
10/11/05 Cory Schlesinger RB Leg Status unknown for Week 6
10/11/05 Eddie Drummond WR Knee/shin Questionable for Week 6
10/11/05 Scottie Vines WR Ankle Week 6 status unclear
10/11/05 Mike Williams WR Back/hamstring Should play in Week 6
10/11/05 Roy Williams WR Thigh Likely to miss Week 6
10/10/05 Kevin Jones RB Headache Week 6 status unclear
9/27/05 Fernando Bryant CB Separated shoulder Out several weeks
9/29/05 Jeff Garcia QB Broken leg Out at least six weeks
The Bottom Line
The Panthers will establish a versatile offense and also be able to force Detroit to be one-dimensional. Carolina will be able to throw the ball on a Lions secondary that has had injury troubles, and it will use the power running game of Stephen Davis to convert once in the red zone. Defensively, the Panthers’ front seven will limit Detroit's running game and make Harrington overcome frequent blitzing.
The visitors win a toe-to-toe slugfest on the strength of balance and ball control.
Pick: Panthers 30, Lions 19
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Panthers @ Lions
at the Panthers scoring 30.
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