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Why To Watch
Though just a game apart in the standings, these teams are headed in different directions. The Saints had a couple of emotional early wins, but they are coming off a 49-point drubbing by the Packers. They will look for some spark in San Antonio, their temporary home. The Falcons' losses have been by a combined six points. . . .
The Saints lost workhorse running back Deuce McAllister to a knee injury. What do they do now? They weren't able to build a consistent offense with McAllister averaging nearly four yards per carry. Now Antowain Smith must carry the running attack, but he is a power back without McAllister's speed.
Quarterback Aaron Brooks threw seven interceptions in the team's three losses. Brooks is the symbol of the team's inconsistency and undisciplined play. He must raise his game to give his team a chance to be competitive. . . .
Will Michael Vick play this week, and if he does will he be effective? Vick missed last week's loss to the Patriots, and his bum knee had him questionable early in the week. Backup Matt Schaub played well against the Pats, throwing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns. Vick gives the offense an unpredictable edge. Schaub appears comfortable in the passing attack and has the security of running backs T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn.
The defense also has a concern. How will it respond to the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Ed Hartwell? It must get production from pass-rushing ends Patrick Kerney and Brady Smith and linebackers Keith Brooking and Demorrio Williams, the team's leading tacklers. . . .
Despite the obvious disparities, a Saints victory will put both teams at .500 and in the thick of the NFC South race.
Falcons Keys For Success
1. Run the ball. The offense is at its best when Dunn and Duckett set the tempo. The Saints' defensive strength is the pass rush, and that will wear down against the pounding inside running game of Duckett. The defense does not the speed to contend with Dunn once he gets to the edge and turns the corner.
Establishing a running game is especially vital in the team's quarterback situation. Vick, if he plays, probably won't be able to move as well as he did before his injury. Schaub will need help from the running game to keep the defense honest as he works the passing game.
2. Shut down the Saints' running game. Without McAllister, the Saints offense has a different dynamic. It puts the ball in Brooks' hands -- unless Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker produce rushing yardage. The Falcons will stack the box, even at the risk of freeing up downfield throwing lanes, to shut down the running game and turn the offense into a one-dimensional passing attack.
3. Create pressure with the blitz. No question, Brooks is athletic. However, he tends to chuck his mechanics and make mistakes when pressured. He does not stand up well against a fierce pass rush. Kearney, Brady Smith and tackle Rod Coleman are terrific rushers, but the defense should dig into its blitz schemes. Linebackers and safeties will confuse Brooks and force him into quick decisions and rushed throws.
Saints Keys For Success
1. Get Brooks in a rhythm. To get Brooks comfortable, coaches must establish a short passing game. Short, high-percentage throws to backs Smith and Stecker and tight end Ernie Conwell will loosen up the defense, pull linebackers into coverage and open running room. If a safety drops close to the line of scrimmage, Brooks can throw downfield into single coverage with less risk of a turnover.
2. Win along the offensive line. The Falcons' defensive front uses speed and quickness to create pressure. Tackles Jammal Brown and Wayne Gandy must lock onto Kerney and Brady Smith and push them up field, out of the play. They will get tight end and fullback help, leaving center LeCharles Bentley to help dinged-up guards Jermane Mayberry and Kendyl Jacox control Coleman's inside rush.
3. Score touchdowns in the red zone. Kicker John Carney is money in the bank, but field goals won't be enough against the Falcons' big-play offense. Red-zone efficiency must improve, a tall order with McAllister out because four of the team's six touchdowns have come on running plays. Look for Conwell as a receiving option inside the 20.
Injuries at a glance
Falcons injuries
10/11/05 Michael Vick QB Knee No word on Week 6 status
10/10/05 Chris Cash CB Arm fracture Out for the season
10/9/05 Edgerton Hartwell LB Foot Injured in Week 5
9/29/05 Kevin Mathis CB Knee Out for the season
Saints injuries
10/11/05 Joe Horn WR Hamstring Questionable for Week 6
10/10/05 Deuce McAllister RB Knee sprain Week 6 status unclear
10/9/05 Aaron Brooks QB Bruised hand Should be fine for Week 6
9/27/05 Jay Bellamy S Right rotator cuff Out for the season
The Bottom Line
The Saints do not have the athletic ability or quickness to deal with the Falcons' defensive speed. They also will not stop the thunder-and-lightning combination of Duckett and Dunn, which will neutralize their strong pass rush.
Even if they stay close, the Saints lack discipline and make too many mistakes to win. They have no chance without McAllister.
Pick: Falcons 30, Saints 16
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Falcons vs Saints
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