Why To Watch
This was supposed to be the season the Texans became a contender with a chance to compete against the dominant Colts. So far the only corner they have turned leads downward to a commanding edge in the race for 2006's first overall draft pick.
The Colts were seen as an aging, one-dimensional team, offensively dominant, defensively challenged and possibly headed toward a salary cap implosion. But coach Tony Dungy has improved the defense enough to assure that his crew is the only undefeated team heading into Week 7.
Houston comes off a pounding by the Seahawks and is 0-5. Their only hope to win is to perfectly execute their game plan. They play better at home, and could be in position to take advantage of an opponent coming off a Monday night game.
This could be a trap for the Colts, who must concentrate on the Texans and not worry about a short workweek with a bye ahead.
Colts Keys For Success
1. Stay patient with the running game. The Texans won't want to allow big plays by quarterback Peyton Manning and the Colts' outstanding passing game. Given its advantage on talent alone, the offense will pound away with the running game to wear down a battered defense. The Seahawks trampled this defense with their running game. Featured back Edgerrin James should be eager to attack a unit that looks terrible and incapable of tackling.
2. Get QB pressure with the front four. Since changing their offensive coordinator, the Texans use quick, three-step drops on passing plays. The goal is to get quarterback David Carr to deliver the ball quickly to avoid being sacked. The defense does not need to blitz to get pressure. It will rely on rush ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to run wild against a patchwork offensive line.
3. Get an early lead. The Texans are struggling and are at the breaking point. Scoring early and building a lead will cause them to collapse. Their anemic offense barely averages double figures per game and has yet to score in the first quarter. It will be difficult for the Texans, both emotionally and strategically, to come back from an early deficit.
Texans Keys For Success
1. Run the football. It's clear this offense can't keep pace with Colts. It must rely on production from featured back Dominick Davis to accomplish several things. One, a solid ground game will slow the pass rush, allowing Carr to use play-action passes. Two, it will allow the team to control the clock, keep the score low and help the defense by keeping Manning and his cohorts off the field.
2. Get production from wide receivers. Andre Johnson is nursing a calf strain and did not play against the Seahawks. With or without Johnson, the offense must get the football down the field. Opposing defenses crowd the line of scrimmage to stop the run and challenge Carr to go deep. He must find receivers downfield and make big plays.
3. Create turnovers. The defense will have a huge task in trying to contain Manning and mates. The offense must run the ball and avoid turnovers that will put the defense in bad situations. But the defense can help itself by playing better fundamental football, being aggressive and forcing turnovers. Creating turnovers is a huge challenge -- the defense got its first last week against the Seahawks.
Injuries at a glance
Colts injuries
10/17/05 Dwight Freeney DE Ribs Probable for 10/17
Texans injuries
10/18/05 Andre Johnson WR Calf Week 7 status unknown
10/17/05 Kailee Wong LB Knee Out for season
The Bottom Line
Can this game be as big a mismatch as it seems? It sure can. The Texans will need a monumental effort to upset the Colts. But no matter how hard the Texans play, they do not have enough talent. The Colts will not overlook this week's opponent and will win big.
Pick: Colts 38, Texans 10
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Colts @ Texans
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