[Kinnick]

We are down to 8 undefeated teams, 6 from the big 5 conferences and 2 from outside. Two noteworthy facts, first, Miami/FSU this coming week is the only possible head to head matchup between undefeateds and second, Baylor is the only school not to have that 13th conference championship game. Here are the undefeated teams with their remaining schedules. I thought about adding in the one loss teams that still have a shot (Stan, MO, Aub) but unless three of the top four lose, those one loss teams don't matter in the NCG discussion.

1 Alabama : LSU, @MissSt, FCS, @Auburn, SECCG (MO or SC)

2 Oregon : @Stanford, Utah, @Arizona, Oregon St, P12CG (UCLA or ASU)

3 Florida State : Miami, @WF, Syr, Idaho, @Florida, ACCCG (Miami or VT)

4 Ohio State : @Purd, @Illinois, Indiana, @Michigan, B1GCG (MSU)

6 Baylor : Okl, TX Tech, @OklSt, @TCU, Texas

7 Miami : @FSU, VT, @Duke, Virginia, @Pitt, ACCCG (FSU)

16 Fresno State : Nevada, @Wyoming, NM, @SJSU, MWCCG (Boise)

17 Northern Illinois : @UMass, BallSt, @Toledo, W Mich, MACCG (Buffalo)

----------------------------------------------------

Miami will lose this week and Fresno likely gets tripped up. They are not a top 25 caliber team, they just keep dodging bullets. FSU will not lose, and OSU's only chance of a loss is against MSU. I still like OSU in that game, but they need to be focused. I want Baylor to win out but they will get tripped up. KSU gouged them for 300 rushing yards. Bama will be playing lights out at home against LSU and will not take Auburn lightly. I think Stanford beats Oregon.

Here are my BCS projections, * means undefeated:
NCG : Alabama* vs Florida State*
Rose : Stanford vs Ohio State*
Sugar : Auburn vs Central Florida
Orange : Wisconsin vs Oregon
Fiesta : Baylor vs Northern Illinois*

[turbotom]

'bama vs FSU is definitely the most likely championship game, but I expect some sort of wacky upset to dramatically alter the BCS.

[Kinnick]

Just think if Alabama would drop a game. As the season stands now it has the 2004 feel to it, but it could quickly turn into 2011 or maybe even 2007 (doubt that much chaos).

It's not out of the realm of possibility that LSU or SC beats Bama, Stan over Oregon, Fla over FSU, MSU over OSU, TX over Bay. A ton of one loss jockeying for position (MSU, OSU, Bama, Stan, Org, FSU, Clem, Bay, Lou, UCF, ...) That gets me going on a different tangent, any chance of a split title (a la 2003)? Just spinning my wheels here, best bet would be Bama pound LSU, tight loss to Aub, Aub lose to MO. Bama then pound MO. FSU lose a close game and Stan beats Org. That puts the NCG as Baylor vs OSU (Bay win ugly), and if Bama can get Stan, Org, or FlSt in a BCS bowl and crush them. Bama could get the AP over Bay. That is a lot of what ifs. But the point is getting the weakest undefeated at year end and strongest one loss.

[WeWantTheVest]

I'm not sold on Baylor. If they make it through the rest of their schedule, maybe, but for now they don't have a single conference win against an opponent with a winning record. Their OOC schedule doesn't do them any favors either.

[Kinnick]

Originally Posted by WeWantTheVest

I'm not sold on Baylor. If they make it through the rest of their schedule, maybe, but for now they don't have a single conference win against an opponent with a winning record. Their OOC schedule doesn't do them any favors either.

Agreed. They won't win out. I am pulling for them though. I am very interested in seeing how they do vs Oklahoma. If they continue at their current offensive pace, the nation will finally take notice.

[turbotom]

Originally Posted by Kinnick

...best bet would be Bama pound LSU, tight loss to Aub, Aub lose to MO. Bama then pound MO. FSU lose a close game and Stan beats Org. That puts the NCG as Baylor vs OSU (Bay win ugly), and if Bama can get Stan, Org, or FlSt in a BCS bowl and crush them. Bama could get the AP over Bay. That is a lot of what ifs. But the point is getting the weakest undefeated at year end and strongest one loss.

Sounds like fun. Let's do it.

[ShowMeTigers]

Originally Posted by Kinnick

Just think if Alabama would drop a game. As the season stands now it has the 2004 feel to it, but it could quickly turn into 2011 or maybe even 2007 (doubt that much chaos).

It's not out of the realm of possibility that LSU or SC beats Bama, Stan over Oregon, Fla over FSU, MSU over OSU, TX over Bay. A ton of one loss jockeying for position (MSU, OSU, Bama, Stan, Org, FSU, Clem, Bay, Lou, UCF, ...) That gets me going on a different tangent, any chance of a split title (a la 2003)? Just spinning my wheels here, best bet would be Bama pound LSU, tight loss to Aub, Aub lose to MO. Bama then pound MO. FSU lose a close game and Stan beats Org. That puts the NCG as Baylor vs OSU (Bay win ugly), and if Bama can get Stan, Org, or FlSt in a BCS bowl and crush them. Bama could get the AP over Bay. That is a lot of what ifs. But the point is getting the weakest undefeated at year end and strongest one loss.

First of all SC doesn't play Bama and Auburn doesn't play Missouri. And you considered that Bama might lose to LSU, SC, or Auburn, but you only have Mizzou getting pounded by them. Well I don't think any of them will beat Bama. Yet I feel strongly that a Franklin lead Mizzou team has considerably more fire power on offense and defense(than LSU, Auburn, SC) with which to compete with Alabama. Franklin is Questionable this week, and should be back starting in a couple of weeks. If Franklin would have started against SC, I believe we would have scored 30+. He was playing almost mistake free football prior to injury.

[Kinnick]

I was thinking Auburn played Missouri but they actually play Georgia. Good catch.

When is Franklin expected to be back?

[ShowMeTigers]

Originally Posted by Kinnick

I was thinking Auburn played Missouri but they actually play Georgia. Good catch.

When is Franklin expected to be back?

All I know is he is listed as 3rd string this week and might dress. Also listed as Questionable right now. We play Tenn and Kentucky then have a bye, before @Ole Miss, Texas A&M to finish the regular season. Seems to me they should let him heal through the bye and utilize him in those 2 tough games at the end. That means rely on Mauk for the easier Tenn and Kent. So the answer is I don't know.

[Kinnick]

Take the South Carolina approach. Start your capable backup, if you fall behind and feel your QB can be the difference, bring him in. If they don't need him against TN or UK, then rest him.