I am just throwing out a few thoughts.
SEC, 10-2 Missouri plays 11-1 Alabama. Bama is a 14 point favorite, but if somehow Missouri pulls the upset, are they automatically in? The would be champs of the best conference in the country. The negatives would be that they were in the weaker division and they still have that Indiana home loss. They would be the highest two loss team, but do you put them ahead of one loss Ohio St, Baylor, or TCU?
ACC, obviously FSU is in with a win over 2 loss GT. If GT pulls the upset, no way do they get in. They will be behind all 2 loss teams, even non division winners like Mich St and Miss St. One loss FSU is certainly out, they would be behind a few two loss teams.
Big Ten, it would take a lot of upsets for two loss Wisconsin to get in. I think it is near impossible. The loss to NW is ugly. Obviously Ohio State winning would put them right in the hunt for #4, especially if they prove to the committee that they are still strong even with a third string QB.
Pac 12. Two loss Arizona vs one loss Oregon. I can't see Oregon losing, but should Arizona beat them again, they would be in the same spot as Missouri. 2 loss team that would seriously contend with the one loss teams.
Big XII. No chance TCU loses to Iowa State. Assuming they win, then the Baylor and Kansas State winner would be co-champs. I am a big believer in head to head, and I expect the committee will be too. If it is Baylor and TCU tied, give Baylor the nod. If it is TCU and KSU, then give TCU the nod.